bayesRatings

Heat at Rockets

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final MIA 122 – HOU 123
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA29343326122
HOU32322336123
Team box
MIA·HOU
47-92
field goals
45-86
16-41
3-pointers
16-35
12-16
free throws
17-21
41
rebounds
44
31
assists
33
9
turnovers
13
58
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA4532214
Kevin DurantHOU372733
Tyler HerroMIA392564
Amen ThompsonHOU3824184
Reed SheppardHOU3723214
Simone FontecchioMIA382133

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +12
MIA +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 8 · MIA 12lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 41%, HOU 59% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
HOU by 2.2
Expected score
HOU 114.0 – 111.8 MIA
Expected total
225.8
HeatThe matchupRockets
+146Our fair odds−146
111.8Expected points114.0
+0.20Power rating+0.39
120.3Points / game113.9
117.1Allowed / game109.8
46.5FG%47.8
35.53P%36.5
46.9Rebounds / game48.1
38−32Season record42−27
7−3Last 105−5
Andrew Wiggins · Jahmir Young
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Terry Rozier
Trevor KeelsOutFred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+14641%————
HOUHouston Rockets−14659%————
SpreadHOU by 2.2
MIAMiami Heat+2.2our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.8
Over225.8our total————
Under225.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.2 expected
Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%
← MIA wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more46%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more32%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FSimone Fontecchiostarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·HOU
Mar 19 vs LAL
last game
Mar 20 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisOut
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · left hip; tightnessOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATrevor Keels · g league - two-wayOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIANorman Powell · left calf; tightnessQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
HOUAlperen Sengun · back; tightnessQuestionable
HOUJae'Sean Tate · right knee; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
MIA·HOU
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
120.3
points / game
113.9
117.1
points allowed / game
109.8
38−32
season record
42−27
23−13
home record
24−10
15−19
away record
18−17
L3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
46.5
FG%
47.8
35.5
3P%
36.5
46.9
rebounds / game
48.1
28.6
assists / game
24.8
13.9
turnovers / game
15.8
54.8
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

MIA · HOU · 137 days
Miami HeatHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 1−8
Feb 28at MIAMIA 115 − 105
Mar 21, 2025at MIAHOU 102 − 98
Dec 29, 2024at HOUMIA 104 − 100
Apr 5, 2024at HOUMIA 119 − 104
Jan 8, 2024at MIAMIA 120 − 113
Feb 10, 2023at MIAMIA 97 − 95
Dec 15, 2022at HOUMIA 111 − 108
Mar 7, 2022at MIAMIA 123 − 106
Dec 31, 2021at HOUMIA 120 − 110

MIA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W
Mar 5vs BKN126 − 110W
Mar 3vs BKN124 − 98W
Feb 28vs HOU115 − 105W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L
Mar 2at WSH123 − 118W