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Spurs at Bucks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 28 · 2:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final SA 127 – MIL 95
← NBA / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA37303525127
MIL2421341695
Team box
SA·MIL
49-89
field goals
38-87
14-35
3-pointers
14-46
15-20
free throws
5-6
41
rebounds
37
35
assists
22
11
turnovers
19
58
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA3123156
Stephon CastleSA29221010
Gary Trent Jr.MIL261812
Devin VassellSA241641
Keldon JohnsonSA231605
Myles TurnerMIL281561

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +38
SA +38
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 0 · SA 38lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 69%, MIL 31% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
SA by 7.2
Expected score
SA 118.3 – 111.2 MIL
Expected total
229.5
SpursThe matchupBucks
−222Our fair odds+222
118.3Expected points111.2
+0.66Power rating−0.36
119.2Points / game110.6
111.6Allowed / game116.6
48.2FG%47.7
35.73P%38.7
46.9Rebounds / game40.8
55−19Season record29−43
9−1Last 102−8
David Jones Garcia · Emanuel Miller
Harrison IngramOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Bobby Portis
Gary Harris · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · MIL chance
Our model fair69.0%31.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs−22269%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+22231%————
SpreadSA by 7.2
SASan Antonio Spurs−7.2our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 7.2 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%
← SA wins byMIL wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more60%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more44%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FPete Nancestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·MIL
Mar 25 at MEM
last game
Mar 25 at POR
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 28, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADavid Jones Garcia · g league - two-wayOut
SAEmanuel Miller · g league - two-wayOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGary Harris · personal reasonsOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles; tendinopathyOut
MILThanasis Antetokounmpo · left calf; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
SA·MIL
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
119.2
points / game
110.6
111.6
points allowed / game
116.6
55−19
season record
29−43
28−7
home record
16−19
27−12
away record
13−24
W7
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
2−8
48.2
FG%
47.7
35.7
3P%
38.7
46.9
rebounds / game
40.8
27.8
assists / game
25.8
13.5
turnovers / game
14.8
51.2
points in paint / game
42.4

Rating Trend

SA · MIL · 144 days
San Antonio SpursMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 5−4
Jan 15at SASA 119 − 101
Jan 31, 2025at SASA 144 − 118
Jan 8, 2025at MILMIL 121 − 105
Jan 4, 2024at SAMIL 125 − 121
Dec 19, 2023at MILMIL 132 − 119
Mar 22, 2023at MILMIL 130 − 94
Nov 11, 2022at SASA 111 − 93
Oct 30, 2021at MILSA 102 − 93
Oct 23, 2021at SAMIL 121 − 111

SA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Mar 25at MEM123 − 98W
Mar 23at MIA136 − 111W
Mar 21vs IND134 − 119W
Mar 19vs PHX101 − 100W
Mar 17at SAC132 − 104W
Mar 16at LAC119 − 115W
Mar 14vs CHA115 − 102W
Mar 12vs DEN131 − 136L
Mar 10vs BOS125 − 116W
Mar 8vs HOU145 − 120W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L