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Bucks at Trail Blazers

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final MIL 99 – POR 130
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL2722321899
POR42293326130
Team box
MIL·POR
36-89
field goals
42-80
14-45
3-pointers
19-41
13-20
free throws
27-33
34
rebounds
54
22
assists
30
17
turnovers
21
36
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ryan RollinsMIL313644
Scoot HendersonPOR242334
Deni AvdijaPOR251847
Jerami GrantPOR241820
Ousmane DiengMIL331644
Donovan ClinganPOR2514153

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +33
MIL +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 33 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 39%, POR 61% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
POR by 4.3
Expected score
POR 115.7 – 111.3 MIL
Expected total
227.0
BucksThe matchupTrail Blazers
+156Our fair odds−156
111.3Expected points115.7
−0.36Power rating−0.12
110.8Points / game115.3
116.4Allowed / game117.0
47.8FG%45.3
38.83P%33.9
40.8Rebounds / game45.9
29−42Season record36−37
3−7Last 106−4
Alex Antetokounmpo · Gary Harris
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.OutChris Youngblood · Damian Lillard
Hansen Yang · Jayson Kent
Shaedon Sharpe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · POR chance
Our model fair39.0%61.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+15639%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−15661%————
SpreadPOR by 4.3
MILMilwaukee Bucks+4.3our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.0
Over227.0our total————
Under227.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 4.3 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%
← MIL wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more52%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more37%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.0 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.568%
Total over 227.548%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FPete Nancestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·POR
Mar 23 at LAC
last game
Mar 23 vs BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGary Harris · left groin; contusionOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · soreness right knee; synovitisOut
MILBobby Portis · right wrist; sprainQuestionable
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles;Questionable
MILMyles Turner · right calf; sorenessQuestionable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentOut
PORJayson Kent · g league - two-wayOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORJerami Grant · left foot; sorenessQuestionable
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
PORVit Krejci · left calf; contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
MIL·POR
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
110.8
points / game
115.3
116.4
points allowed / game
117.0
29−42
season record
36−37
16−19
home record
19−16
13−23
away record
17−21
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
47.8
FG%
45.3
38.8
3P%
33.9
40.8
rebounds / game
45.9
25.8
assists / game
25.2
14.8
turnovers / game
17.3
42.5
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

MIL · POR · 141 days
Milwaukee BucksPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · POR 5−4
Nov 24, 2025at MILPOR 115 − 103
Jan 28, 2025at PORPOR 125 − 112
Jan 4, 2025at MILPOR 105 − 102
Jan 31, 2024at PORPOR 119 − 116
Nov 26, 2023at MILMIL 108 − 102
Feb 6, 2023at PORMIL 127 − 108
Nov 21, 2022at MILMIL 119 − 111
Feb 14, 2022at MILPOR 122 − 107
Feb 5, 2022at PORMIL 137 − 108

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W

POR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 23vs BKN134 − 99W
Mar 22at DEN112 − 128L
Mar 20at MIN108 − 104W
Mar 18at IND127 − 119W
Mar 16at BKN114 − 95W
Mar 15at PHI103 − 109L
Mar 13vs UTAH124 − 114W
Mar 10vs CHA101 − 103L
Mar 8vs IND131 − 111W
Mar 6at HOU99 − 106L