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Bucks at Clippers

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 9:30 PM CT · Intuit Dome · Final MIL 96 – LAC 129
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL2423202996
LAC28433721129
Team box
MIL·LAC
37-84
field goals
47-81
16-41
3-pointers
17-38
6-9
free throws
18-18
38
rebounds
34
29
assists
30
23
turnovers
12
28
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kawhi LeonardLAC252853
Gary Trent Jr.MIL312011
Kobe SandersLAC261934
Brook LopezLAC221933
Darius GarlandLAC181526
AJ GreenMIL211512

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +46
MIL +46
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 46 · MIL 2lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 33%, LAC 67% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
LAC by 6.9
Expected score
LAC 114.7 – 107.8 MIL
Expected total
222.4
BucksThe matchupClippers
+202Our fair odds−202
107.8Expected points114.7
−0.29Power rating+0.23
111.0Points / game113.5
116.2Allowed / game113.0
47.9FG%48.5
38.83P%36.1
40.9Rebounds / game40.6
29−41Season record35−36
3−7Last 105−5
Alex Antetokounmpo · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr.Out (3 each)Bennedict Mathurin · Bradley Beal
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · LAC chance
Our model fair33.1%66.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+20233%————
LACLA Clippers−20267%————
SpreadLAC by 6.9
MILMilwaukee Bucks+6.9our margin————
LACLA Clippers−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.4
Over222.4our total————
Under222.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 6.9 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 14 points: 3%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 20 points: 2%LA Clippers by 21 points: 2%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 33 points: 1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 47 points: <1%LA Clippers by 48 points: <1%LA Clippers by 49 points: <1%
← MIL wins byLAC wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more59%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more43%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.4 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FTaurean Princestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
LA Clippers
GDarius Garlandstarted
FNicolas Batumstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·LAC
Mar 21 at PHX
last game
Mar 21 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILGary Harris · left groin; contusionQuestionable
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles; sorenessQuestionable
LA Clippers
LACBennedict Mathurin · right toe; injury recoveryOut
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
LACJohn Collins · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
LACKawhi Leonard · left ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
MIL·LAC
−0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
111.0
points / game
113.5
116.2
points allowed / game
113.0
29−41
season record
35−36
16−19
home record
19−15
13−22
away record
16−21
W1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
5−5
47.9
FG%
48.5
38.8
3P%
36.1
40.9
rebounds / game
40.6
25.8
assists / game
23.7
14.7
turnovers / game
14.3
42.7
points in paint / game
49.4

Rating Trend

MIL · LAC · 139 days
Milwaukee BucksLA Clippers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAC 2−6
Feb 20, 2025at MILMIL 116 − 110
Jan 25, 2025at LACLAC 127 − 117
Mar 10, 2024at LACMIL 124 − 117
Mar 4, 2024at MILMIL 113 − 106
Feb 10, 2023at LACMIL 119 − 106
Feb 2, 2023at MILMIL 106 − 105
Apr 1, 2022at MILLAC 153 − 119
Feb 6, 2022at LACMIL 137 − 113

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L
Mar 8vs ORL91 − 130L
Mar 7vs UTAH113 − 99W
Mar 4vs ATL113 − 131L

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 21at DAL138 − 131W
Mar 19at NO99 − 105L
Mar 18at NO109 − 124L
Mar 16vs SA115 − 119L
Mar 14vs SAC109 − 118L
Mar 13vs CHI119 − 108W
Mar 11vs MIN153 − 128W
Mar 9vs NY126 − 118W
Mar 7at MEM123 − 120W
Mar 6at SA112 − 116L