bayesRatings

Nuggets at Jazz

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final DEN 130 – UTAH 117
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN39292933130
UTAH28263627117
Team box
DEN·UTAH
44-91
field goals
44-95
16-39
3-pointers
12-37
26-31
free throws
17-25
53
rebounds
44
30
assists
32
14
turnovers
12
54
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN373755
Brice SensabaughUTAH332864
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH3125123
Cameron JohnsonDEN351996
Christian BraunDEN311864
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH321656

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +18
DEN +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 0 · DEN 18lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 79%, UTAH 21% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
DEN by 11.0
Expected score
DEN 129.7 – 118.7 UTAH
Expected total
248.4
NuggetsThe matchupJazz
−366Our fair odds+366
129.7Expected points118.7
+0.50Power rating−1.04
121.3Points / game117.3
116.6Allowed / game125.4
49.6FG%46.7
39.53P%34.8
43.5Rebounds / game43.6
48−28Season record21−55
8−2Last 101−9
Spencer Jones · Zeke NnajiOutBlake Hinson · Elijah Harkless
Isaiah Collier · Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jusuf Nurkic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair78.5%21.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets−36679%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+36621%————
SpreadDEN by 11.0
DENDenver Nuggets−11our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+11our margin————
Totalwe expect 248.4
Over248.4our total————
Under248.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 11.0 expected
Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 4%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 1%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%
← DEN wins byUTAH wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more71%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more55%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

248.4 expected
196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: <1%210 points: <1%211 points: <1%212 points: <1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 1%229 points: 1%230 points: 1%231 points: 1%232 points: 1%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 2%258 points: 2%259 points: 2%260 points: 2%261 points: 2%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: 1%278 points: 1%279 points: 1%280 points: 1%281 points: 1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%307 points: <1%308 points: <1%309 points: <1%310 points: <1%311 points: <1%312 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 238.566%
Total over 248.548%
Total over 258.531%
Total from 239 to 25835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Utah Jazz
GAce Baileystarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted
FCody Williamsstarted
FBrice Sensabaughstarted
COscar Tshiebwestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·UTAH
Mar 29 vs GS
last game
Mar 30 vs CLE
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
Denver Nuggets
DENSpencer Jones · right hamstring; strainOut
DENZeke Nnaji · left hip; sprainOut
DENAaron Gordon · left calf; tightnessProbable
Utah Jazz
UTAHBlake Hinson · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHElijah Harkless · left hamstring; sorenessOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · left hamstring; strainOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
DEN·UTAH
+0.50
rating (0 = average)
−1.04
121.3
points / game
117.3
116.6
points allowed / game
125.4
48−28
season record
21−55
24−13
home record
13−26
24−15
away record
8−29
W6
streak
L6
8−2
last 10
1−9
49.6
FG%
46.7
39.5
3P%
34.8
43.5
rebounds / game
43.6
28.8
assists / game
29.5
12.9
turnovers / game
15.6
49.1
points in paint / game
51.8

Rating Trend

DEN · UTAH · 148 days
Denver NuggetsUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 1−9
Mar 27at DENDEN 135 − 129
Mar 2at UTAHDEN 128 − 125
Dec 22, 2025at DENDEN 135 − 112
Mar 28, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 93
Dec 30, 2024at UTAHDEN 132 − 121
Nov 27, 2024at UTAHDEN 122 − 103
Nov 2, 2024at DENDEN 129 − 103
Apr 9, 2024at UTAHDEN 111 − 95
Mar 9, 2024at DENDEN 142 − 121
Jan 10, 2024at UTAHUTAH 124 − 111

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Mar 29vs GS116 − 93W
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L
Mar 17vs PHI124 − 96W
Mar 14at LAL125 − 127L
Mar 12at SA136 − 131W

UTAH · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Mar 30vs CLE113 − 122L
Mar 28at PHX109 − 134L
Mar 27at DEN129 − 135L
Mar 25vs WSH110 − 133L
Mar 23vs TOR127 − 143L
Mar 21vs PHI116 − 126L
Mar 19vs MIL128 − 96W
Mar 18at MIN111 − 147L
Mar 15at SAC111 − 116L
Mar 13at POR114 − 124L