bayesRatings

Raptors at Jazz

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final TOR 143 – UTAH 127
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR31374926143
UTAH25333039127
Team box
TOR·UTAH
54-88
field goals
39-83
20-37
3-pointers
13-36
15-28
free throws
36-43
35
rebounds
39
49
assists
25
17
turnovers
18
60
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ace BaileyUTAH353763
RJ BarrettTOR252726
Brice SensabaughUTAH312451
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR322342
Ja'Kobe WalterTOR282152
Scottie BarnesTOR2720710

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +35
TOR +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 5 · TOR 35lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 68%, UTAH 32% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
TOR by 6.3
Expected score
TOR 121.2 – 114.8 UTAH
Expected total
236.0
RaptorsThe matchupJazz
−211Our fair odds+211
121.2Expected points114.8
+0.01Power rating−0.94
113.8Points / game117.3
112.1Allowed / game124.8
47.5FG%46.5
34.63P%34.7
42.3Rebounds / game43.8
39−31Season record21−50
4−6Last 103−7
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Immanuel Quickley
Jakob PoeltlOut (5 each)Blake Hinson · Isaiah Collier
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jusuf Nurkic
Keyonte George

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair67.9%32.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−21168%————
UTAHUtah Jazz+21132%————
SpreadTOR by 6.3
TORToronto Raptors−6.3our margin————
UTAHUtah Jazz+6.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 6.3 expected
Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%
← TOR wins byUTAH wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more58%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more42%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GJamal Sheadstarted
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FSandro Mamukelashvilistarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
Utah Jazz
GJohn Koncharstarted
GElijah Harklessstarted
GAce Baileystarted
GBez Mbengstarted
FKyle Filipowskistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·UTAH
Mar 22 at PHX
last game
Mar 21 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORImmanuel Quickley · right foot; plantar fasciitisOut
TORJakob Poeltl · back; lower back strain - injury managementOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · left thumb; sprainQuestionable
Utah Jazz
UTAHBlake Hinson · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHIsaiah Collier · left hamstring; injuryOut
UTAHJaren Jackson Jr. · left knee; injury recoveryOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · nose; injury recoveryOut
UTAHKeyonte George · management right hamstring; strainOut
UTAHLauri Markkanen · right hip; impingementOut
UTAHWalker Kessler · left shoulder; injury recoveryOut
UTAHCody Williams · right shoulder; sorenessDoubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
TOR·UTAH
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
113.8
points / game
117.3
112.1
points allowed / game
124.8
39−31
season record
21−50
19−16
home record
13−23
20−15
away record
8−27
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
47.5
FG%
46.5
34.6
3P%
34.7
42.3
rebounds / game
43.8
28.8
assists / game
29.4
13.8
turnovers / game
15.6
51.8
points in paint / game
51.2

Rating Trend

TOR · UTAH · 139 days
Toronto RaptorsUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · UTAH 5−4
Feb 1at TORTOR 107 − 100
Mar 14, 2025at UTAHTOR 126 − 118
Mar 7, 2025at TORTOR 118 − 109
Jan 12, 2024at UTAHUTAH 145 − 113
Dec 23, 2023at TORUTAH 126 − 119
Feb 10, 2023at TORUTAH 122 − 116
Feb 1, 2023at UTAHUTAH 131 − 128
Jan 7, 2022at TORTOR 122 − 108
Nov 18, 2021at UTAHUTAH 119 − 103

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 22at PHX98 − 120L
Mar 20at DEN115 − 121L
Mar 18at CHI139 − 109W
Mar 15vs DET119 − 108W
Mar 13vs PHX122 − 115W
Mar 11at NO111 − 122L
Mar 10at HOU99 − 113L
Mar 8vs DAL122 − 92W
Mar 5at MIN107 − 115L
Mar 3vs NY95 − 111L

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 21vs PHI116 − 126L
Mar 19vs MIL128 − 96W
Mar 18at MIN111 − 147L
Mar 15at SAC111 − 116L
Mar 13at POR114 − 124L
Mar 11vs NY117 − 134L
Mar 9vs GS119 − 116W
Mar 7at MIL99 − 113L
Mar 5at WSH122 − 112W
Mar 4at PHI102 − 106L