bayesRatings

Grizzlies at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MEM 119 – DEN 136
← NBA / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM33392225119
DEN37313929136
Team box
MEM·DEN
42-92
field goals
53-90
19-50
3-pointers
14-36
16-23
free throws
16-21
38
rebounds
52
24
assists
31
6
turnovers
12
44
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cedric CowardMEM222762
Jamal MurrayDEN352675
Cameron JohnsonDEN301832
Lucas WilliamsonMEM371661
Taylor HendricksMEM221661
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM221523

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +21
MEM +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 21 · MEM 8lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 22%, DEN 78% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
DEN by 9.3
Expected score
DEN 126.1 – 116.8 MEM
Expected total
242.9
GrizzliesThe matchupNuggets
+348Our fair odds−348
116.8Expected points126.1
−0.52Power rating+0.52
115.0Points / game121.8
120.0Allowed / game117.0
45.9FG%49.6
35.53P%39.4
42.2Rebounds / game43.6
25−54Season record51−28
1−9Last 109−1
Brandon Clarke · Cam Spencer
GG Jackson · Ja Morant
Javon SmallOutPeyton Watson · Spencer Jones

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · DEN chance
Our model fair22.3%77.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+34822%————
DENDenver Nuggets−34878%————
SpreadDEN by 9.3
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+9.3our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−9.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 242.9
Over242.9our total————
Under242.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 9.3 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 51 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 50 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 49 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 51 points: <1%
← MEM wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more65%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more49%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

242.9 expected
192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: <1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 1%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 2%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: 1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%305 points: <1%306 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 232.568%
Total over 242.549%
Total over 252.531%
Total from 233 to 25237%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GJahmai Mashackstarted
GWalter Clayton Jr.started
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FToby Okanistarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·DEN
Apr 6 vs CLE
last game
Apr 6 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 8, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCam Spencer · low back; sorenessOut
MEMGG Jackson · left knee; sorenessOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJavon Small · left thigh; contusionOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
and 3 more
Denver Nuggets
DENPeyton Watson · right hamstring; strainOut
DENSpencer Jones · right hamstring; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
MEM·DEN
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
115.0
points / game
121.8
120.0
points allowed / game
117.0
25−54
season record
51−28
14−27
home record
26−13
11−27
away record
25−15
L5
streak
W9
1−9
last 10
9−1
45.9
FG%
49.6
35.5
3P%
39.4
42.2
rebounds / game
43.6
28.0
assists / game
28.9
15.2
turnovers / game
12.9
48.6
points in paint / game
49.2

Rating Trend

MEM · DEN · 155 days
Memphis GrizzliesDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 8−2
Mar 18at MEMMEM 125 − 118
Feb 11at DENDEN 122 − 116
Nov 24, 2025at MEMDEN 125 − 115
Apr 11, 2025at DENDEN 117 − 109
Nov 19, 2024at MEMDEN 122 − 110
Nov 17, 2024at MEMMEM 105 − 90
Apr 14, 2024at MEMDEN 126 − 111
Mar 25, 2024at DENDEN 128 − 103
Dec 28, 2023at DENDEN 142 − 105
Oct 27, 2023at MEMDEN 108 − 104

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L
Apr 3vs TOR96 − 128L
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Apr 6vs POR137 − 132W
Apr 4vs SA136 − 134W
Apr 1at UTAH130 − 117W
Mar 29vs GS116 − 93W
Mar 27vs UTAH135 − 129W
Mar 25vs DAL142 − 135W
Mar 24at PHX125 − 123W
Mar 22vs POR128 − 112W
Mar 20vs TOR121 − 115W
Mar 18at MEM118 − 125L