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Grizzlies at Bucks

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 2:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final MEM 115 – MIL 131
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM25313128115
MIL34283039131
Team box
MEM·MIL
38-92
field goals
50-83
17-46
3-pointers
16-32
22-28
free throws
15-24
38
rebounds
44
25
assists
30
14
turnovers
20
36
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Rayan RupertMEM39331010
Ryan RollinsMIL322443
Cormac RyanMIL292143
Walter Clayton Jr.MEM252034
Myles TurnerMIL2219110
Taurean PrinceMIL241933

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +19
MEM +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 19 · MEM 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 45%, MIL 55% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
MIL by 0.8
Expected score
MIL 117.1 – 116.2 MEM
Expected total
233.3
GrizzliesThe matchupBucks
+123Our fair odds−123
116.2Expected points117.1
−0.43Power rating−0.44
114.8Points / game110.5
119.6Allowed / game116.9
45.9FG%47.6
35.33P%38.7
42.4Rebounds / game40.7
25−52Season record30−47
2−8Last 102−8
Brandon Clarke · Cam Spencer
Cedric Coward · GG Jackson
Ja MorantOutBobby Portis · Gary Trent Jr.
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · MIL chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+12345%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−12355%————
SpreadMIL by 0.8
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+0.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.3
Over233.3our total————
Under233.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 0.8 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%
← MEM wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more43%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more29%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.3 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GWalter Clayton Jr.started
GRayan Rupertstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FToby Okanistarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·MIL
Apr 3 vs TOR
last game
Apr 3 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCam Spencer · low back; sorenessOut
MEMCedric Coward · low back; sorenessOut
MEMGG Jackson · left knee; sorenessOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · concussion; protocolOut
MEMJavon Small · left thigh; contusionOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
and 3 more
Milwaukee Bucks
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · left hip; pointerOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
MEM·MIL
−0.43
rating (0 = average)
−0.44
114.8
points / game
110.5
119.6
points allowed / game
116.9
25−52
season record
30−47
14−26
home record
17−22
11−26
away record
13−25
L3
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
2−8
45.9
FG%
47.6
35.3
3P%
38.7
42.4
rebounds / game
40.7
27.9
assists / game
25.6
15.2
turnovers / game
15.0
49.0
points in paint / game
41.8

Rating Trend

MEM · MIL · 152 days
Memphis GrizzliesMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 1−8
Dec 26, 2025at MEMMEM 125 − 104
Feb 2, 2025at MILMEM 132 − 119
Oct 31, 2024at MEMMEM 122 − 99
Apr 3, 2024at MILMEM 111 − 101
Feb 15, 2024at MEMMEM 113 − 110
Apr 7, 2023at MILMEM 137 − 114
Dec 15, 2022at MEMMEM 142 − 101
Mar 26, 2022at MEMMEM 127 − 102
Jan 19, 2022at MILMIL 126 − 114

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Apr 3vs TOR96 − 128L
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 3vs BOS101 − 133L
Apr 1at HOU113 − 119L
Mar 31vs DAL123 − 99W
Mar 29vs LAC113 − 127L
Mar 28vs SA95 − 127L
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L