bayesRatings

Bucks at Rockets

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final MIL 113 – HOU 119
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL20243435113
HOU27273134119
Team box
MIL·HOU
42-89
field goals
41-87
17-40
3-pointers
18-42
12-16
free throws
19-22
45
rebounds
42
21
assists
30
15
turnovers
8
40
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ousmane DiengMIL4536710
Reed SheppardHOU372746
Alperen SengunHOU292594
Cormac RyanMIL382524
Pete NanceMIL402330
Kevin DurantHOU391959

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +20
MIL +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 20 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 25%, HOU 75% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
HOU by 10.5
Expected score
HOU 115.5 – 105.0 MIL
Expected total
220.6
BucksThe matchupRockets
+295Our fair odds−295
105.0Expected points115.5
−0.44Power rating+0.43
110.6Points / game114.4
116.6Allowed / game109.9
47.7FG%47.9
38.63P%36.6
40.8Rebounds / game48.1
30−45Season record46−29
3−7Last 106−4
Bobby Portis · Gary Harris
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Kevin Porter Jr.
Kyle KuzmaOutFred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair25.3%74.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+29525%————
HOUHouston Rockets−29575%————
SpreadHOU by 10.5
MILMilwaukee Bucks+10.5our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−10.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.6
Over220.6our total————
Under220.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 10.5 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 52 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 51 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%
← MIL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more68%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more53%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more38%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.6 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
FPete Nancestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CJericho Simsstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·HOU
Mar 31 vs DAL
last game
Mar 31 vs NY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGary Harris · personal reasonsOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles; tendonopathyOut
MILMyles Turner · left ankle; sprainOut
MILTaurean Prince · neck; surgery; injury managementOut
MILThanasis Antetokounmpo · left calf; strainOut
MILRyan Rollins · right hip; strainQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
MIL·HOU
−0.44
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
110.6
points / game
114.4
116.6
points allowed / game
109.9
30−45
season record
46−29
17−21
home record
26−10
13−24
away record
20−19
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
47.7
FG%
47.9
38.6
3P%
36.6
40.8
rebounds / game
48.1
25.7
assists / game
25.3
15.0
turnovers / game
15.6
42.1
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

MIL · HOU · 148 days
Milwaukee BucksHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 4−5
Nov 9, 2025at MILHOU 122 − 115
Feb 25, 2025at HOUHOU 100 − 97
Nov 18, 2024at MILMIL 101 − 100
Jan 6, 2024at HOUHOU 112 − 108
Dec 17, 2023at MILMIL 128 − 119
Dec 11, 2022at HOUHOU 97 − 92
Oct 22, 2022at MILMIL 125 − 105
Dec 22, 2021at MILMIL 126 − 106
Dec 10, 2021at HOUMIL 123 − 114

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 31vs DAL123 − 99W
Mar 29vs LAC113 − 127L
Mar 28vs SA95 − 127L
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 31vs NY111 − 94W
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W