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Clippers at Bucks

NBA · Sunday, Mar 29 · 2:30 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final LAC 127 – MIL 113
← NBA / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC29283931127
MIL25212839113
Team box
LAC·MIL
45-77
field goals
40-77
13-30
3-pointers
20-44
24-28
free throws
13-15
39
rebounds
27
27
assists
23
16
turnovers
22
50
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Gary Trent Jr.MIL373624
Bennedict MathurinLAC272861
John CollinsLAC352233
Kawhi LeonardLAC232082
Taurean PrinceMIL381868
Darius GarlandLAC2715211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +24
LAC +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 2 · LAC 24lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 59%, MIL 41% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
LAC by 3.9
Expected score
LAC 113.7 – 109.8 MIL
Expected total
223.4
ClippersThe matchupBucks
−143Our fair odds+143
113.7Expected points109.8
+0.22Power rating−0.36
113.8Points / game110.4
112.5Allowed / game116.7
48.6FG%47.7
36.33P%38.5
40.7Rebounds / game40.7
38−36Season record29−44
6−4Last 102−8
Bradley Beal · Isaiah Jackson
TyTy Washington Jr. · Yanic Konan NiederhauserOutAlex Antetokounmpo · Bobby Portis
Gary Harris · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · MIL chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers−14359%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+14341%————
SpreadLAC by 3.9
LACLA Clippers−3.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.4
Over223.4our total————
Under223.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 3.9 expected
LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%
← LAC wins byMIL wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more51%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more36%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

223.4 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GDarius Garlandstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAndre Jackson Jr.started
FPete Nancestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·MIL
Mar 27 at IND
last game
Mar 28 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; fractureOut
LACIsaiah Jackson · right ankle; sprainOut
LACTyTy Washington Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILAlex Antetokounmpo · g league - two-wayOut
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGary Harris · personal reasonsOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles; tendonopathyOut
MILMyles Turner · right patella; tendonopathyOut
MILRyan Rollins · left hip flexor; sorenessOut
MILThanasis Antetokounmpo · left calf; sorenessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
LAC·MIL
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
113.8
points / game
110.4
112.5
points allowed / game
116.7
38−36
season record
29−44
21−15
home record
16−20
17−21
away record
13−24
W4
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
2−8
48.6
FG%
47.7
36.3
3P%
38.5
40.7
rebounds / game
40.7
23.7
assists / game
25.7
14.2
turnovers / game
14.9
49.3
points in paint / game
42.2

Rating Trend

LAC · MIL · 145 days
LA ClippersMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 6−3
Mar 23at LACLAC 129 − 96
Feb 20, 2025at MILMIL 116 − 110
Jan 25, 2025at LACLAC 127 − 117
Mar 10, 2024at LACMIL 124 − 117
Mar 4, 2024at MILMIL 113 − 106
Feb 10, 2023at LACMIL 119 − 106
Feb 2, 2023at MILMIL 106 − 105
Apr 1, 2022at MILLAC 153 − 119
Feb 6, 2022at LACMIL 137 − 113

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Mar 27at IND114 − 113W
Mar 25vs TOR119 − 94W
Mar 23vs MIL129 − 96W
Mar 21at DAL138 − 131W
Mar 19at NO99 − 105L
Mar 18at NO109 − 124L
Mar 16vs SA115 − 119L
Mar 14vs SAC109 − 118L
Mar 13vs CHI119 − 108W
Mar 11vs MIN153 − 128W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Mar 28vs SA95 − 127L
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L
Mar 10vs PHX114 − 129L