bayesRatings

Clippers at Pacers

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final LAC 114 – IND 113
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC21293628114
IND42182825113
Team box
LAC·IND
41-96
field goals
43-87
13-34
3-pointers
16-36
19-27
free throws
11-15
46
rebounds
45
20
assists
34
12
turnovers
20
46
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Darius GarlandLAC353005
Kawhi LeonardLAC352884
Aaron NesmithIND352672
Obi ToppinIND232084
Bennedict MathurinLAC291771
Brook LopezLAC331694

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +24
LAC +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 24 · LAC 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 63%, IND 37% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
LAC by 5.2
Expected score
LAC 116.9 – 111.7 IND
Expected total
228.6
ClippersThe matchupPacers
−172Our fair odds+172
116.9Expected points111.7
+0.22Power rating−0.54
113.8Points / game111.9
112.5Allowed / game120.7
48.6FG%45.6
36.33P%35.4
40.7Rebounds / game41.6
37−36Season record16−57
6−4Last 101−9
Bradley Beal · Yanic Konan NiederhauserOutIvica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · IND chance
Our model fair63.3%36.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers−17263%————
INDIndiana Pacers+17237%————
SpreadLAC by 5.2
LACLA Clippers−5.2our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+5.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.6
Over228.6our total————
Under228.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

LA Clippers by 5.2 expected
LA Clippers by 46 points: <1%LA Clippers by 45 points: <1%LA Clippers by 44 points: <1%LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: 1%LA Clippers by 32 points: 1%LA Clippers by 31 points: 1%LA Clippers by 30 points: 1%LA Clippers by 29 points: 1%LA Clippers by 28 points: 1%LA Clippers by 27 points: 1%LA Clippers by 26 points: 1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 2%LA Clippers by 18 points: 2%LA Clippers by 17 points: 2%LA Clippers by 16 points: 2%LA Clippers by 15 points: 2%LA Clippers by 14 points: 2%LA Clippers by 13 points: 3%LA Clippers by 12 points: 3%LA Clippers by 11 points: 3%LA Clippers by 10 points: 3%LA Clippers by 9 points: 3%LA Clippers by 8 points: 3%LA Clippers by 7 points: 3%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 3%LA Clippers by 3 points: 3%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← LAC wins byIND wins by →
LA Clippers wins by 5 or more55%
LA Clippers wins by 10 or more39%
LA Clippers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.6 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GDarius Garlandstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FJohn Collinsstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CBrook Lopezstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·IND
Mar 25 vs TOR
last game
Mar 25 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · left hip; featureOut
LACYanic Konan Niederhauser · right lisfranc ligament; tearOut
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDObi Toppin · low back; sorenessQuestionable
INDAaron Nesmith · low back; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
LAC·IND
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
113.8
points / game
111.9
112.5
points allowed / game
120.7
37−36
season record
16−57
21−15
home record
10−26
16−21
away record
6−31
W3
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
1−9
48.6
FG%
45.6
36.3
3P%
35.4
40.7
rebounds / game
41.6
23.8
assists / game
27.0
14.2
turnovers / game
14.4
49.3
points in paint / game
45.7

Rating Trend

LAC · IND · 143 days
LA ClippersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · IND 5−4
Mar 4at LACLAC 130 − 107
Feb 23, 2025at INDIND 129 − 111
Feb 6, 2025at LACIND 119 − 112
Mar 25, 2024at LACIND 133 − 116
Dec 18, 2023at INDLAC 151 − 127
Dec 31, 2022at INDIND 131 − 130
Nov 27, 2022at LACLAC 114 − 100
Jan 31, 2022at INDIND 122 − 116
Jan 17, 2022at LACLAC 139 − 133

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 25vs TOR119 − 94W
Mar 23vs MIL129 − 96W
Mar 21at DAL138 − 131W
Mar 19at NO99 − 105L
Mar 18at NO109 − 124L
Mar 16vs SA115 − 119L
Mar 14vs SAC109 − 118L
Mar 13vs CHI119 − 108W
Mar 11vs MIN153 − 128W
Mar 9vs NY126 − 118W

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L