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Pacers at Magic

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final IND 128 – ORL 126
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND34254425128
ORL24403131126
Team box
IND·ORL
45-82
field goals
48-94
16-35
3-pointers
12-34
22-24
free throws
18-24
35
rebounds
36
32
assists
29
9
turnovers
11
50
points in paint
64
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Paolo BancheroORL373946
Pascal SiakamIND343761
Tristan da SilvaORL342135
Jarace WalkerIND332052
Aaron NesmithIND351922
Desmond BaneORL321767

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +12
IND +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 7 · IND 12lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 30%, ORL 70% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
ORL by 7.5
Expected score
ORL 116.7 – 109.2 IND
Expected total
225.9
PacersThe matchupMagic
+233Our fair odds−233
109.2Expected points116.7
−0.52Power rating+0.14
111.4Points / game115.3
120.4Allowed / game114.3
45.3FG%46.3
35.23P%34.0
41.8Rebounds / game43.5
15−56Season record38−32
0−10Last 106−4
Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese HaliburtonOutAnthony Black · Franz Wagner
Jalen Suggs · Jonathan Isaac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · ORL chance
Our model fair30.1%69.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+23330%————
ORLOrlando Magic−23370%————
SpreadORL by 7.5
INDIndiana Pacers+7.5our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−7.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.9
Over225.9our total————
Under225.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 7.5 expected
Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%
← IND wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more60%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more45%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.9 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.570%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.531%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Orlando Magic
GJevon Carterstarted
GDesmond Banestarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·ORL
Mar 21 at SA
last game
Mar 21 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right acl; tearOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
INDAndrew Nembhard · right calf; contusionQuestionable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementQuestionable
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; sprainQuestionable
Orlando Magic
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJalen Suggs · n/a; illnessOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
IND·ORL
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
111.4
points / game
115.3
120.4
points allowed / game
114.3
15−56
season record
38−32
10−25
home record
22−14
5−31
away record
16−18
L16
streak
L4
0−10
last 10
6−4
45.3
FG%
46.3
35.2
3P%
34.0
41.8
rebounds / game
43.5
26.8
assists / game
26.4
14.4
turnovers / game
13.7
45.5
points in paint / game
51.1

Rating Trend

IND · ORL · 139 days
Indiana PacersOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ORL 7−3
Jan 4at ORLORL 135 − 127
Dec 31, 2025at INDORL 112 − 110
Apr 11, 2025at INDORL 129 − 115
Nov 13, 2024at ORLORL 94 − 90
Nov 6, 2024at INDIND 118 − 111
Oct 28, 2024at ORLORL 119 − 115
Mar 10, 2024at ORLIND 111 − 97
Dec 23, 2023at INDORL 117 − 110
Nov 19, 2023at INDORL 128 − 116
Feb 25, 2023at ORLIND 121 − 108

IND · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L
Mar 4at LAC107 − 130L

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
Mar 21vs LAL104 − 105L
Mar 19at CHA111 − 130L
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W