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Lakers at Magic

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final LAL 105 – ORL 104
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL37252023105
ORL30352217104
Team box
LAL·ORL
39-87
field goals
36-83
8-32
3-pointers
11-37
19-29
free throws
21-23
43
rebounds
42
19
assists
27
12
turnovers
18
52
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL383358
Austin ReavesLAL402675
Paolo BancheroORL361656
Jalen SuggsORL341436
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL291392
Luke KennardLAL201330

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +14
LAL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 7 · LAL 14lead changes: 10

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 49%, ORL 51% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
ORL by 0.9
Expected score
ORL 112.7 – 111.8 LAL
Expected total
224.5
LakersThe matchupMagic
+105Our fair odds−105
111.8Expected points112.7
+0.28Power rating+0.14
116.6Points / game115.4
115.1Allowed / game114.4
50.1FG%46.3
36.03P%34.0
40.9Rebounds / game43.6
45−25Season record38−31
9−1Last 107−3
Maxi KleberOutAlex Morales · Anthony Black
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Jonathan Isaac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · ORL chance
Our model fair48.7%51.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+10549%————
ORLOrlando Magic−10551%————
SpreadORL by 0.9
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.9our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.5
Over224.5our total————
Under224.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%
← LAL wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more43%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more29%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.5 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.569%
Total over 224.550%
Total over 234.530%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·ORL
Mar 19 at MIA
last game
Mar 19 at CHA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMaxi Kleber · lumbar back; strainOut
Orlando Magic
ORLAlex Morales · g league - two-wayOut
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut
ORLWendell Carter Jr. · left rib; mild contusionQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 69+ games
LAL·ORL
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
116.6
points / game
115.4
115.1
points allowed / game
114.4
45−25
season record
38−31
23−12
home record
22−13
22−13
away record
16−18
W8
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
7−3
50.1
FG%
46.3
36.0
3P%
34.0
40.9
rebounds / game
43.6
25.6
assists / game
26.4
14.5
turnovers / game
13.7
51.8
points in paint / game
51.4

Rating Trend

LAL · ORL · 137 days
Los Angeles LakersOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ORL 4−5
Feb 24at LALORL 110 − 109
Mar 24, 2025at ORLORL 118 − 106
Nov 21, 2024at LALORL 119 − 118
Nov 4, 2023at ORLORL 120 − 101
Oct 30, 2023at LALLAL 106 − 103
Mar 19, 2023at LALLAL 111 − 105
Dec 27, 2022at ORLLAL 129 − 110
Jan 21, 2022at ORLLAL 116 − 105
Dec 12, 2021at LALLAL 106 − 94

LAL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Mar 19at MIA134 − 126W
Mar 18at HOU124 − 116W
Mar 16at HOU100 − 92W
Mar 14vs DEN127 − 125W
Mar 12vs CHI142 − 130W
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L
Mar 3vs NO110 − 101W

ORL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Mar 19at CHA111 − 130L
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W
Mar 7at MIN119 − 92W
Mar 5vs DAL115 − 114W
Mar 3vs WSH126 − 109W