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Lakers at Pacers

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 6:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final LAL 137 – IND 130
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL45303032137
IND28312645130
Team box
LAL·IND
50-89
field goals
48-86
9-23
3-pointers
16-39
28-34
free throws
18-23
39
rebounds
34
30
assists
35
14
turnovers
18
70
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL384367
Austin ReavesLAL382518
LeBron JamesLAL342399
Jaxson HayesLAL3621101
Pascal SiakamIND302081
Jay HuffIND321861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +29
LAL +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 0 · LAL 29lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 66%, IND 34% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
LAL by 5.0
Expected score
LAL 118.9 – 113.9 IND
Expected total
232.8
LakersThe matchupPacers
−193Our fair odds+193
118.9Expected points113.9
+0.33Power rating−0.54
116.4Points / game111.6
114.9Allowed / game120.5
50.0FG%45.4
35.83P%35.3
40.9Rebounds / game41.8
46−26Season record16−56
9−1Last 101−9
Adou Thiero · Marcus Smart
Rui HachimuraOut (3 each)Ivica Zubac · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · IND chance
Our model fair65.9%34.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−19366%————
INDIndiana Pacers+19334%————
SpreadLAL by 5.0
LALLos Angeles Lakers−5our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+5our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.8
Over232.8our total————
Under232.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 5.0 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← LAL wins byIND wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more54%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more38%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.8 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted
Indiana Pacers
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GAaron Nesmithstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
CJay Huffstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·IND
Mar 23 at DET
last game
Mar 23 at ORL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; sorenessOut
LALMarcus Smart · right ankle; contusionOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; sorenessOut
LALDeandre Ayton · back; sorenessQuestionable
Indiana Pacers
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDEthan Thompson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDTaelon Peter · g league - two-wayDoubtful
INDAaron Nesmith · right ankle; injuryProbable
INDAndrew Nembhard · right calf; contusionProbable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementProbable
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
LAL·IND
+0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
116.4
points / game
111.6
114.9
points allowed / game
120.5
46−26
season record
16−56
23−12
home record
10−25
23−14
away record
6−31
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
1−9
50.0
FG%
45.4
35.8
3P%
35.3
40.9
rebounds / game
41.8
25.5
assists / game
26.9
14.4
turnovers / game
14.3
51.9
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

LAL · IND · 141 days
Los Angeles LakersIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 3−7
Mar 6at LALLAL 128 − 117
Mar 26, 2025at INDLAL 120 − 119
Feb 8, 2025at LALLAL 124 − 117
Mar 29, 2024at INDIND 109 − 90
Mar 24, 2024at LALLAL 150 − 145
Dec 9, 2023at LALLAL 123 − 109
Feb 2, 2023at INDLAL 112 − 111
Nov 28, 2022at LALIND 116 − 115
Jan 19, 2022at LALIND 111 − 104
Nov 24, 2021at INDLAL 124 − 116

LAL · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Mar 23at DET110 − 113L
Mar 21at ORL105 − 104W
Mar 19at MIA134 − 126W
Mar 18at HOU124 − 116W
Mar 16at HOU100 − 92W
Mar 14vs DEN127 − 125W
Mar 12vs CHI142 − 130W
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L
Mar 8at POR111 − 131L
Mar 6at LAL117 − 128L