bayesRatings

Lakers at Pistons

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final LAL 110 – DET 113
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL27253523110
DET23422424113
Team box
LAL·DET
38-79
field goals
40-88
8-29
3-pointers
11-26
26-31
free throws
22-24
39
rebounds
37
27
assists
31
13
turnovers
11
58
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL393276
Daniss JenkinsDET393048
Austin ReavesLAL402425
Jalen DurenDET3320113
Tobias HarrisDET321475
Deandre AytonLAL2713100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +16
LAL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 16 · LAL 7lead changes: 11

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 37%, DET 63% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
DET by 5.1
Expected score
DET 116.0 – 110.9 LAL
Expected total
226.8
LakersThe matchupPistons
+168Our fair odds−168
110.9Expected points116.0
+0.28Power rating+0.61
116.5Points / game117.4
114.9Allowed / game109.5
50.0FG%48.2
35.93P%34.6
41.0Rebounds / game45.8
46−25Season record51−19
9−1Last 106−4
Marcus Smart · Rui HachimuraOutBobi Klintman · Cade Cunningham
Isaac Jones · Isaiah Stewart
Marcus Sasser

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · DET chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers+16837%————
DETDetroit Pistons−16863%————
SpreadDET by 5.1
LALLos Angeles Lakers+5.1our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.8
Over226.8our total————
Under226.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 5.1 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%
← LAL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more54%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more39%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.8 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.570%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FLeBron Jamesstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted
Detroit Pistons
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·DET
Mar 21 at ORL
last game
Mar 20 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALMarcus Smart · right ankle; sorenessOut
LALRui Hachimura · right calf; sorenessOut
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · coach's decisionOut
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; strainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
LAL·DET
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.61
116.5
points / game
117.4
114.9
points allowed / game
109.5
46−25
season record
51−19
23−12
home record
27−8
23−13
away record
24−11
W9
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
6−4
50.0
FG%
48.2
35.9
3P%
34.6
41.0
rebounds / game
45.8
25.5
assists / game
27.1
14.4
turnovers / game
15.0
51.8
points in paint / game
57.9

Rating Trend

LAL · DET · 139 days
Los Angeles LakersDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 3−6
Dec 30, 2025at LALDET 128 − 106
Dec 23, 2024at LALDET 117 − 114
Nov 4, 2024at DETDET 115 − 103
Feb 13, 2024at LALLAL 125 − 111
Nov 29, 2023at DETLAL 133 − 107
Dec 11, 2022at DETLAL 124 − 117
Nov 18, 2022at LALLAL 128 − 121
Nov 28, 2021at LALLAL 110 − 106
Nov 21, 2021at DETLAL 121 − 116

LAL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Mar 21at ORL105 − 104W
Mar 19at MIA134 − 126W
Mar 18at HOU124 − 116W
Mar 16at HOU100 − 92W
Mar 14vs DEN127 − 125W
Mar 12vs CHI142 − 130W
Mar 10vs MIN120 − 106W
Mar 8vs NY110 − 97W
Mar 6vs IND128 − 117W
Mar 5at DEN113 − 120L

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L
Mar 13vs MEM126 − 110W
Mar 12vs PHI131 − 109W
Mar 10at BKN138 − 100W
Mar 8at MIA110 − 121L
Mar 7vs BKN105 − 107L
Mar 5at SA106 − 121L