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Rockets at Timberwolves

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 8:42 PM CT · Target Center · Final HOU 108 – MIN 110
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
HOU1924252713108
MIN2321262515110
Team box
HOU·MIN
38-93
field goals
45-108
9-29
3-pointers
13-37
23-25
free throws
7-10
54
rebounds
49
26
assists
27
21
turnovers
17
50
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU433038
Alperen SengunHOU433063
Jaden McDanielsMIN372520
Julius RandleMIN422466
Donte DiVincenzoMIN361732
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU4816121

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +13
HOU +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: MIN 11 · HOU 13lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 43%, MIN 57% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
MIN by 2.1
Expected score
MIN 112.7 – 110.6 HOU
Expected total
223.3
RocketsThe matchupTimberwolves
+135Our fair odds−135
110.6Expected points112.7
+0.38Power rating+0.47
114.2Points / game118.4
110.2Allowed / game114.5
47.9FG%48.5
36.53P%37.3
47.9Rebounds / game44.6
43−28Season record44−28
5−5Last 105−5
Fred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutAnthony Edwards · Enrique Freeman
Rocco Zikarsky · Zyon Pullin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIN chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+13543%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−13557%————
SpreadMIN by 2.1
HOUHouston Rockets+2.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.3
Over223.3our total————
Under223.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 2.1 expected
Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%
← HOU wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more46%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more32%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.3 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIN
Mar 23 at CHI
last game
Mar 22 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; patellofemoral pain syndromeOut
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
MINAyo Dosunmu · right calf; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
HOU·MIN
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.47
114.2
points / game
118.4
110.2
points allowed / game
114.5
43−28
season record
44−28
25−10
home record
24−13
18−18
away record
20−15
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
47.9
FG%
48.5
36.5
3P%
37.3
47.9
rebounds / game
44.6
24.9
assists / game
26.2
15.7
turnovers / game
14.9
52.4
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

HOU · MIN · 141 days
Houston RocketsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Jan 16at HOUHOU 110 − 105
Feb 21, 2025at HOUHOU 121 − 115
Feb 6, 2025at MINMIN 127 − 114
Dec 27, 2024at HOUMIN 113 − 112
Nov 26, 2024at MINHOU 117 − 111
Apr 2, 2024at MINMIN 113 − 106
Feb 4, 2024at MINMIN 111 − 90
Jan 5, 2024at HOUMIN 122 − 95
Jan 23, 2023at HOUHOU 119 − 114
Jan 21, 2023at MINMIN 113 − 104

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L
Mar 7vs ORL92 − 119L
Mar 5vs TOR115 − 107W