bayesRatings

Rockets at Bulls

NBA · Monday, Mar 23 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final HOU 124 – CHI 132
← NBA / Mar 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU21273937124
CHI41243037132
Team box
HOU·CHI
49-92
field goals
45-90
11-41
3-pointers
19-38
15-24
free throws
23-28
41
rebounds
45
27
assists
30
17
turnovers
16
62
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU404075
Alperen SengunHOU37331310
Collin SextonCHI262542
Matas BuzelisCHI352341
Amen ThompsonHOU392331
Leonard MillerCHI231793

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +22
HOU +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 22 · HOU 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 63%, CHI 37% · Updated Mar 23

Expected margin
HOU by 5.0
Expected score
HOU 117.2 – 112.2 CHI
Expected total
229.5
RocketsThe matchupBulls
−167Our fair odds+167
117.2Expected points112.2
+0.39Power rating−0.33
114.0Points / game115.8
109.9Allowed / game120.2
47.8FG%46.9
36.63P%36.1
48.0Rebounds / game45.0
43−27Season record28−42
5−5Last 104−6
Fred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutAnfernee Simons · Guerschon Yabusele
Isaac Okoro · Jaden Ivey
Mac McClung

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · CHI chance
Our model fair62.6%37.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−16763%————
CHIChicago Bulls+16737%————
SpreadHOU by 5.0
HOUHouston Rockets−5our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls+5our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.5
Over229.5our total————
Under229.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.0 expected
Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byCHI wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more54%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more38%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.5 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FJalen Smithstarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
CNick Richardsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·CHI
Mar 21 vs MIA
last game
Mar 19 vs CLE
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 23, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIGuerschon Yabusele · left ankle; sprainOut
CHIIsaac Okoro · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIYuki Kawamura · g league - two-wayOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strain; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
HOU·CHI
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
114.0
points / game
115.8
109.9
points allowed / game
120.2
43−27
season record
28−42
25−10
home record
17−20
18−17
away record
11−22
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
47.8
FG%
46.9
36.6
3P%
36.1
48.0
rebounds / game
45.0
24.9
assists / game
28.7
15.7
turnovers / game
15.0
52.3
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

HOU · CHI · 139 days
Houston RocketsChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 3−6
Jan 13at HOUHOU 119 − 113
Mar 15, 2025at HOUHOU 117 − 114
Nov 17, 2024at CHIHOU 143 − 107
Mar 21, 2024at HOUHOU 127 − 117
Jan 10, 2024at CHICHI 124 − 119
Mar 11, 2023at HOUCHI 119 − 111
Dec 26, 2022at CHIHOU 133 − 118
Dec 20, 2021at CHICHI 133 − 118
Nov 24, 2021at HOUHOU 118 − 113

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L
Mar 6vs POR106 − 99W
Mar 5vs GS113 − 115L

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 19vs CLE110 − 115L
Mar 18vs TOR109 − 139L
Mar 16vs MEM132 − 107W
Mar 13at LAC108 − 119L
Mar 12at LAL130 − 142L
Mar 10at GS130 − 124W
Mar 8at SAC110 − 126L
Mar 5at PHX105 − 103W
Mar 3vs OKC108 − 116L
Mar 1vs MIL120 − 97W