bayesRatings

Rockets at Pelicans

NBA · Sunday, Mar 29 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final HOU 134 – NO 102
← NBA / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU29393333134
NO29183322102
Team box
HOU·NO
49-105
field goals
37-86
18-44
3-pointers
9-29
18-21
free throws
19-28
59
rebounds
36
33
assists
19
8
turnovers
11
52
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU3236137
Kevin DurantHOU292046
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU332043
Dejounte MurrayNO281946
Saddiq BeyNO311871
Zion WilliamsonNO251843

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +33
HOU +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 6 · HOU 33lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 66%, NO 34% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
HOU by 5.5
Expected score
HOU 116.4 – 110.9 NO
Expected total
227.3
RocketsThe matchupPelicans
−194Our fair odds+194
116.4Expected points110.9
+0.38Power rating−0.50
114.1Points / game115.3
110.2Allowed / game119.3
47.8FG%46.6
36.43P%34.6
48.1Rebounds / game43.9
44−29Season record25−50
5−5Last 105−5
Fred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutBryce McGowens · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · NO chance
Our model fair66.0%34.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−19466%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+19434%————
SpreadHOU by 5.5
HOUHouston Rockets−5.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.3
Over227.3our total————
Under227.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 5.5 expected
Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%
← HOU wins byNO wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more55%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more40%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.3 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.569%
Total over 227.549%
Total over 237.529%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CYves Missistarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·NO
Mar 27 at MEM
last game
Mar 27 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NODejounte Murray · left hand; contusionQuestionable
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
HOU·NO
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
114.1
points / game
115.3
110.2
points allowed / game
119.3
44−29
season record
25−50
25−10
home record
16−22
19−19
away record
9−28
W1
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
5−5
47.8
FG%
46.6
36.4
3P%
34.6
48.1
rebounds / game
43.9
25.0
assists / game
25.3
15.8
turnovers / game
14.2
52.5
points in paint / game
57.5

Rating Trend

HOU · NO · 145 days
Houston RocketsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Mar 13at HOUHOU 107 − 105
Jan 18at HOUHOU 119 − 110
Dec 18, 2025at NONO 133 − 128
Mar 8, 2025at HOUHOU 146 − 117
Mar 6, 2025at NOHOU 109 − 97
Dec 26, 2024at NOHOU 128 − 111
Dec 19, 2024at HOUHOU 133 − 113
Feb 22, 2024at NONO 127 − 105
Jan 31, 2024at HOUNO 110 − 99
Dec 23, 2023at NOHOU 106 − 104

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Mar 27at TOR106 − 119L
Mar 26at DET108 − 129L
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W