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Cavaliers at Pelicans

NBA · Saturday, Mar 21 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final CLE 111 – NO 106
← NBA / Mar 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE34192335111
NO28283218106
Team box
CLE·NO
42-88
field goals
39-90
12-39
3-pointers
12-40
15-22
free throws
16-20
55
rebounds
40
26
assists
30
14
turnovers
9
60
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE392773
Zion WilliamsonNO322564
James HardenCLE3620610
Saddiq BeyNO361954
Evan MobleyCLE301883
Sam MerrillCLE3215102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +15
CLE +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 15 · CLE 13lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 71%, NO 29% · Updated Mar 21

Expected margin
CLE by 8.5
Expected score
CLE 123.3 – 114.8 NO
Expected total
238.2
CavaliersThe matchupPelicans
−249Our fair odds+249
123.3Expected points114.8
+0.57Power rating−0.55
119.1Points / game115.6
114.8Allowed / game119.3
47.9FG%46.7
36.33P%34.6
44.4Rebounds / game44.1
43−27Season record25−46
6−4Last 106−4
Craig Porter Jr. · Jarrett Allen
Olivier Sarr · Tristan Enaruna
Tyrese ProctorOutBryce McGowens · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · NO chance
Our model fair71.3%28.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−24971%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+24929%————
SpreadCLE by 8.5
CLECleveland Cavaliers−8.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.2
Over238.2our total————
Under238.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 8.5 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%
← CLE wins byNO wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more64%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more48%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

238.2 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDean Wadestarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·NO
Mar 19 at CHI
last game
Mar 19 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 21, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLECraig Porter Jr. · left groin; strainOut
CLEJarrett Allen · quad contusion right knee; tendonitisOut
CLEOlivier Sarr · g league - two-wayOut
CLETristan Enaruna · g league - two-wayOut
CLETyrese Proctor · right quadricep; strainOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left great toe; sprainDoubtful
CLEDonovan Mitchell · left eye; contusionQuestionable
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
CLE·NO
+0.57
rating (0 = average)
−0.55
119.1
points / game
115.6
114.8
points allowed / game
119.3
43−27
season record
25−46
22−13
home record
16−21
21−14
away record
9−25
W2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
47.9
FG%
46.7
36.3
3P%
34.6
44.4
rebounds / game
44.1
28.3
assists / game
25.2
14.1
turnovers / game
14.4
50.9
points in paint / game
57.3

Rating Trend

CLE · NO · 137 days
Cleveland CavaliersNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 2−7
Dec 23, 2025at CLECLE 141 − 118
Nov 20, 2024at CLECLE 128 − 100
Nov 6, 2024at NOCLE 131 − 122
Mar 13, 2024at NOCLE 116 − 95
Dec 21, 2023at CLENO 123 − 104
Feb 10, 2023at NOCLE 118 − 107
Jan 16, 2023at CLECLE 113 − 103
Jan 31, 2022at CLECLE 93 − 90
Dec 28, 2021at NONO 108 − 104

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 19at CHI115 − 110W
Mar 17at MIL123 − 116W
Mar 15vs DAL120 − 130L
Mar 13at DAL138 − 105W
Mar 11at ORL122 − 128L
Mar 9vs PHI115 − 101W
Mar 8vs BOS98 − 109L
Mar 3vs DET113 − 109W
Mar 1at BKN106 − 102W
Feb 27at DET119 − 122L

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W
Mar 3at LAL101 − 110L
Mar 1at LAC117 − 137L