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Pelicans at Raptors

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 7:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final NO 106 – TOR 119
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO25193131106
TOR29303129119
Team box
NO·TOR
39-93
field goals
48-93
7-28
3-pointers
10-28
21-25
free throws
13-18
43
rebounds
46
21
assists
36
14
turnovers
14
62
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR3623612
Zion WilliamsonNO312274
Saddiq BeyNO301932
Jakob PoeltlTOR3018113
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR211892
RJ BarrettTOR311864

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +22
NO +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 22 · NO 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 32%, TOR 68% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
TOR by 6.2
Expected score
TOR 117.8 – 111.6 NO
Expected total
229.4
PelicansThe matchupRaptors
+208Our fair odds−208
111.6Expected points117.8
−0.50Power rating+0.03
115.4Points / game113.9
119.3Allowed / game112.4
46.7FG%47.7
34.73P%34.9
43.9Rebounds / game42.2
25−49Season record40−32
5−5Last 105−5
Bryce McGowens · Dejounte Murray
Hunter Dickinson · Josh Oduro
Trey AlexanderOutChucky Hepburn · Immanuel Quickley

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · TOR chance
Our model fair32.4%67.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20832%————
TORToronto Raptors−20868%————
SpreadTOR by 6.2
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.2our margin————
TORToronto Raptors−6.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.4
Over229.4our total————
Under229.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 6.2 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more57%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more41%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CYves Missistarted
Toronto Raptors
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·TOR
Mar 26 at DET
last game
Mar 25 at LAC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; injury managementOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainOut
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORImmanuel Quickley · right foot; plantar fasciitisOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
NO·TOR
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
115.4
points / game
113.9
119.3
points allowed / game
112.4
25−49
season record
40−32
16−22
home record
19−16
9−27
away record
21−16
L3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
46.7
FG%
47.7
34.7
3P%
34.9
43.9
rebounds / game
42.2
25.4
assists / game
29.1
14.2
turnovers / game
13.8
57.4
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

NO · TOR · 143 days
New Orleans PelicansToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TOR 4−5
Mar 11at NONO 122 − 111
Jan 27, 2025at TORTOR 113 − 104
Nov 27, 2024at NOTOR 119 − 93
Mar 5, 2024at TORNO 139 − 98
Feb 5, 2024at NONO 138 − 100
Feb 23, 2023at TORTOR 115 − 110
Nov 30, 2022at NONO 126 − 108
Feb 14, 2022at NONO 120 − 90
Jan 9, 2022at TORTOR 105 − 101

NO · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Mar 26at DET108 − 129L
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 25at LAC94 − 119L
Mar 23at UTAH143 − 127W
Mar 22at PHX98 − 120L
Mar 20at DEN115 − 121L
Mar 18at CHI139 − 109W
Mar 15vs DET119 − 108W
Mar 13vs PHX122 − 115W
Mar 11at NO111 − 122L
Mar 10at HOU99 − 113L
Mar 8vs DAL122 − 92W