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Pelicans at Pistons

NBA · Thursday, Mar 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final NO 108 – DET 129
← NBA / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO33233022108
DET31342737129
Team box
NO·DET
44-95
field goals
48-85
9-25
3-pointers
15-28
11-24
free throws
18-23
42
rebounds
45
26
assists
34
15
turnovers
19
70
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen DurenDET3130107
Kevin HuerterDET342232
Zion WilliamsonNO312162
Daniss JenkinsDET331929
Saddiq BeyNO311713
Jeremiah FearsNO271326

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +23
NO +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 23 · NO 5lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 21%, DET 79% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
DET by 11.5
Expected score
DET 120.5 – 109.0 NO
Expected total
229.4
PelicansThe matchupPistons
+387Our fair odds−387
109.0Expected points120.5
−0.50Power rating+0.66
115.5Points / game117.5
119.2Allowed / game109.8
46.7FG%48.2
34.73P%34.6
43.9Rebounds / game45.7
25−48Season record52−20
6−4Last 107−3
Bryce McGowens · Hunter Dickinson
Josh Oduro · Trey AlexanderOut (4 each)Cade Cunningham · Caris LeVert
Isaiah Stewart · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · DET chance
Our model fair20.5%79.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+38721%————
DETDetroit Pistons−38779%————
SpreadDET by 11.5
NONew Orleans Pelicans+11.5our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−11.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.4
Over229.4our total————
Under229.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 11.5 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 53 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 50 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 51 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 52 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 53 points: <1%
← NO wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more70%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more55%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more40%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GDejounte Murraystarted
GSaddiq Beystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
CDeAndre Jordanstarted
Detroit Pistons
GKevin Huerterstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·DET
Mar 24 at NY
last game
Mar 25 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 26, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NOBryce McGowens · right small toe; fractureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJosh Oduro · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Murphy III · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETCaris LeVert · right knee; sorenessOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETTobias Harris · left hip; sorenessQuestionable
DETAusar Thompson · right ankle; injury managementProbable
DETDuncan Robinson · right wrist; injury managementProbable
DETJalen Duren · right knee; injury managementProbable
DETJavonte Green · left ankle; sprainProbable
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
NO·DET
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
115.5
points / game
117.5
119.2
points allowed / game
109.8
25−48
season record
52−20
16−22
home record
28−9
9−26
away record
24−11
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
46.7
FG%
48.2
34.7
3P%
34.6
43.9
rebounds / game
45.7
25.4
assists / game
27.2
14.2
turnovers / game
14.9
57.2
points in paint / game
58.0

Rating Trend

NO · DET · 142 days
New Orleans PelicansDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · DET 3−6
Jan 21at NODET 112 − 104
Mar 23, 2025at DETDET 136 − 130
Mar 17, 2025at NODET 127 − 81
Mar 24, 2024at DETNO 114 − 101
Nov 2, 2023at NONO 125 − 116
Jan 13, 2023at DETNO 116 − 110
Dec 7, 2022at NONO 104 − 98
Feb 1, 2022at DETNO 111 − 101
Dec 10, 2021at NONO 109 − 93

NO · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Mar 24at NY116 − 121L
Mar 21vs CLE106 − 111L
Mar 19vs LAC105 − 99W
Mar 18vs LAC124 − 109W
Mar 16vs DAL129 − 111W
Mar 13at HOU105 − 107L
Mar 11vs TOR122 − 111W
Mar 8vs WSH138 − 118W
Mar 6at PHX116 − 118L
Mar 5at SAC133 − 123W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 25vs ATL129 − 130L
Mar 23vs LAL113 − 110W
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L
Mar 13vs MEM126 − 110W
Mar 12vs PHI131 − 109W
Mar 10at BKN138 − 100W
Mar 8at MIA110 − 121L