bayesRatings

Hawks at Pistons

NBA · Wednesday, Mar 25 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final ATL 130 – DET 129
← NBA / Mar 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
ATL373625239130
DET292640268129
Team box
ATL·DET
50-105
field goals
52-102
18-52
3-pointers
9-33
12-17
free throws
16-19
50
rebounds
43
31
assists
33
20
turnovers
14
50
points in paint
76
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen JohnsonATL4227812
CJ McCollumATL352715
Jalen DurenDET4226143
Tobias HarrisDET352233
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL402143
Daniss JenkinsDET4519310

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +21
ATL +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: DET 5 · ATL 21lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 33%, DET 67% · Updated Mar 25

Expected margin
DET by 5.5
Expected score
DET 118.8 – 113.3 ATL
Expected total
232.2
HawksThe matchupPistons
+206Our fair odds−206
113.3Expected points118.8
+0.14Power rating+0.66
118.2Points / game117.3
116.4Allowed / game109.5
47.4FG%48.2
36.73P%34.7
43.4Rebounds / game45.7
40−32Season record52−19
9−1Last 107−3
Asa Newell · Keshon Gilbert
RayJ DennisOutCade Cunningham · Isaiah Stewart
Marcus Sasser · Wendell Moore Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · DET chance
Our model fair32.7%67.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+20633%————
DETDetroit Pistons−20667%————
SpreadDET by 5.5
ATLAtlanta Hawks+5.5our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 5.5 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%
← ATL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more55%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more40%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Detroit Pistons
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·DET
Mar 23 vs MEM
last game
Mar 23 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 25, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJalen Johnson · left shoulder; inflammationQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; strainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DETJavonte Green · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
DETTolu Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DETJalen Duren · right knee; sorenessProbable
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
ATL·DET
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
118.2
points / game
117.3
116.4
points allowed / game
109.5
40−32
season record
52−19
21−16
home record
28−8
19−16
away record
24−11
W2
streak
W4
9−1
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
48.2
36.7
3P%
34.7
43.4
rebounds / game
45.7
30.4
assists / game
27.1
14.2
turnovers / game
14.9
52.3
points in paint / game
57.8

Rating Trend

ATL · DET · 141 days
Atlanta HawksDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Dec 12, 2025at DETDET 142 − 115
Dec 1, 2025at DETDET 99 − 98
Nov 18, 2025at ATLDET 120 − 112
Feb 23, 2025at ATLDET 148 − 143
Feb 3, 2025at DETATL 132 − 130
Jan 22, 2025at ATLDET 114 − 104
Nov 8, 2024at DETDET 122 − 121
Apr 3, 2024at ATLATL 121 − 113
Dec 18, 2023at ATLATL 130 − 124
Nov 14, 2023at DETATL 126 − 120

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W
Mar 4at MIL131 − 113W

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Mar 23vs LAL113 − 110W
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L
Mar 13vs MEM126 − 110W
Mar 12vs PHI131 − 109W
Mar 10at BKN138 − 100W
Mar 8at MIA110 − 121L
Mar 7vs BKN105 − 107L