bayesRatings

Rockets at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final HOU 119 – MEM 109
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU32243132119
MEM30193327109
Team box
HOU·MEM
44-93
field goals
40-91
12-33
3-pointers
13-37
19-26
free throws
16-18
57
rebounds
39
30
assists
28
14
turnovers
11
62
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM293172
Kevin DurantHOU3525610
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU3721164
Amen ThompsonHOU401883
Tari EasonHOU291671
Reed SheppardHOU281555

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +14
HOU +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 7 · HOU 14lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 63%, MEM 37% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
HOU by 4.3
Expected score
HOU 117.0 – 112.6 MEM
Expected total
229.6
RocketsThe matchupGrizzlies
−169Our fair odds+169
117.0Expected points112.6
+0.38Power rating−0.37
114.1Points / game115.1
110.2Allowed / game119.1
47.8FG%45.9
36.43P%35.4
48.0Rebounds / game43.0
43−29Season record24−48
4−6Last 101−9
Fred VanVleet · Steven Adams
Tristen NewtonOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jaylen Wells · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MEM chance
Our model fair62.9%37.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−16963%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+16937%————
SpreadHOU by 4.3
HOUHouston Rockets−4.3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.6
Over229.6our total————
Under229.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.3 expected
Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%
← HOU wins byMEM wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more52%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more37%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.6 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.549%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MEM
Mar 25 at MIN
last game
Mar 25 vs SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; sorenessOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle and elbow; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · left ankle; sprain (nasal fracture, face mask)Doubtful

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
HOU·MEM
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
114.1
points / game
115.1
110.2
points allowed / game
119.1
43−29
season record
24−48
25−10
home record
13−22
18−19
away record
11−26
L2
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
1−9
47.8
FG%
45.9
36.4
3P%
35.4
48.0
rebounds / game
43.0
24.9
assists / game
28.1
15.8
turnovers / game
15.1
52.4
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

HOU · MEM · 143 days
Houston RocketsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 2−8
Jan 26at HOUHOU 108 − 99
Nov 5, 2025at MEMHOU 124 − 109
Jan 30, 2025at MEMMEM 120 − 119
Jan 13, 2025at HOUHOU 120 − 118
Jan 9, 2025at MEMHOU 119 − 115
Oct 25, 2024at HOUHOU 128 − 108
Feb 14, 2024at MEMMEM 121 − 113
Dec 15, 2023at MEMHOU 103 − 96
Dec 13, 2023at HOUHOU 117 − 104
Nov 22, 2023at HOUHOU 111 − 91

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L
Mar 10vs TOR113 − 99W
Mar 8at SA120 − 145L

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L
Mar 9at BKN115 − 126L