bayesRatings

Knicks at Rockets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final NY 94 – HOU 111
← NBA / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY2129222294
HOU37262919111
Team box
NY·HOU
36-85
field goals
42-78
10-34
3-pointers
15-35
12-16
free throws
12-16
41
rebounds
38
22
assists
35
11
turnovers
10
38
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU352768
Karl-Anthony TownsNY342283
Reed SheppardHOU282052
Amen ThompsonHOU391748
Tari EasonHOU301783
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU391562

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +21
NY +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 21 · NY 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 48%, HOU 52% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
HOU by 0.1
Expected score
HOU 110.0 – 110.0 NY
Expected total
220.0
KnicksThe matchupRockets
+106Our fair odds−106
110.0Expected points110.0
+0.59Power rating+0.43
116.9Points / game114.4
110.5Allowed / game110.1
47.5FG%47.8
37.43P%36.5
46.1Rebounds / game48.3
49−27Season record45−29
7−3Last 105−5
Landry ShametOutFred VanVleet · Isaiah Crawford
Steven Adams · Tristen Newton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · HOU chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks+10648%————
HOUHouston Rockets−10652%————
SpreadHOU by 0.1
NYNew York Knicks+0.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.0
Over220.0our total————
Under220.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 0.1 expected
New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: <1%New York Knicks by 28 points: <1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 1%New York Knicks by 16 points: 1%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 2%New York Knicks by 9 points: 2%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%
← NY wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more41%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more27%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.0 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.568%
Total over 220.549%
Total over 230.529%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Houston Rockets
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·HOU
Mar 29 at OKC
last game
Mar 29 at NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 31, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYLandry Shamet · right knee; tibial plateau contusionOut
NYAriel Hukporti · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
NYDillon Jones · g league - two-wayQuestionable
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle surgeryQuestionable
Houston Rockets
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUTristen Newton · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
NY·HOU
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.43
116.9
points / game
114.4
110.5
points allowed / game
110.1
49−27
season record
45−29
28−9
home record
25−10
21−18
away record
20−19
L2
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
5−5
47.5
FG%
47.8
37.4
3P%
36.5
46.1
rebounds / game
48.3
27.4
assists / game
25.1
13.7
turnovers / game
15.7
47.5
points in paint / game
52.5

Rating Trend

NY · HOU · 147 days
New York KnicksHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · HOU 2−7
Feb 21at NYNY 108 − 106
Feb 3, 2025at NYNY 124 − 118
Nov 4, 2024at HOUHOU 109 − 97
Feb 12, 2024at HOUHOU 105 − 103
Jan 17, 2024at NYNY 109 − 94
Mar 27, 2023at NYNY 137 − 115
Dec 31, 2022at HOUNY 108 − 88
Dec 16, 2021at HOUNY 116 − 103
Nov 20, 2021at NYNY 106 − 99

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Mar 29at OKC100 − 111L
Mar 26at CHA103 − 114L
Mar 24vs NO121 − 116W
Mar 22vs WSH145 − 113W
Mar 20at BKN93 − 92W
Mar 17vs IND136 − 110W
Mar 15vs GS110 − 107W
Mar 13at IND101 − 92W
Mar 11at UTAH134 − 117W
Mar 9at LAC118 − 126L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 29at NO134 − 102W
Mar 27at MEM119 − 109W
Mar 25at MIN108 − 110L
Mar 23at CHI124 − 132L
Mar 21vs MIA123 − 122W
Mar 20vs ATL117 − 95W
Mar 18vs LAL116 − 124L
Mar 16vs LAL92 − 100L
Mar 13vs NO107 − 105W
Mar 11at DEN93 − 129L