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Mavericks at Bucks

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final DAL 99 – MIL 123
← NBA / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL3120192999
MIL38272533123
Team box
DAL·MIL
34-96
field goals
41-92
10-36
3-pointers
20-54
21-28
free throws
21-26
50
rebounds
59
18
assists
28
14
turnovers
18
46
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ryan RollinsMIL362479
Kyle KuzmaMIL232063
Cooper FlaggDAL3219103
Brandon WilliamsDAL261822
AJ GreenMIL281762
Gary Trent Jr.MIL231331

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +33
DAL +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 33 · DAL 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 43%, MIL 57% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
MIL by 2.3
Expected score
MIL 116.0 – 113.7 DAL
Expected total
229.7
MavericksThe matchupBucks
+134Our fair odds−134
113.7Expected points116.0
−0.51Power rating−0.44
113.6Points / game110.4
119.0Allowed / game116.9
46.9FG%47.7
33.83P%38.6
44.6Rebounds / game40.5
24−51Season record29−45
3−7Last 102−8
Caleb Martin · Dereck Lively II
Kyrie Irving · Marvin Bagley III
Naji MarshallOutBobby Portis · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr. · Thanasis Antetokounmpo

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · MIL chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+13443%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−13457%————
SpreadMIL by 2.3
DALDallas Mavericks+2.3our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.7
Over229.7our total————
Under229.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 2.3 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%
← DAL wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more47%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more32%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

229.7 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
CJericho Simsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·MIL
Mar 30 vs MIN
last game
Mar 29 vs LAC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 31, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALMarvin Bagley III · left shoulder; impingementOut
DALNaji Marshall · illness; illnessOut
DALP.J. Washington · illness; illnessOut
DALKlay Thompson · restDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayProbable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayProbable
Milwaukee Bucks
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · tendonopathy right knee; synovitisOut
MILThanasis Antetokounmpo · left calf; strainOut
MILGary Harris · personal reasonsQuestionable
MILKyle Kuzma · right achilles;Probable
MILRyan Rollins · left hip flexor; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
DAL·MIL
−0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.44
113.6
points / game
110.4
119.0
points allowed / game
116.9
24−51
season record
29−45
14−24
home record
16−21
10−27
away record
13−24
L1
streak
L4
3−7
last 10
2−8
46.9
FG%
47.7
33.8
3P%
38.6
44.6
rebounds / game
40.5
25.3
assists / game
25.7
14.8
turnovers / game
15.0
53.3
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

DAL · MIL · 147 days
Dallas MavericksMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIL 8−1
Nov 10, 2025at DALMIL 116 − 114
Mar 5, 2025at MILMIL 137 − 107
Mar 1, 2025at DALMIL 132 − 117
Feb 3, 2024at DALMIL 129 − 117
Nov 18, 2023at MILMIL 132 − 125
Dec 9, 2022at DALMIL 106 − 105
Nov 27, 2022at MILMIL 124 − 115
Apr 3, 2022at MILDAL 118 − 112
Dec 23, 2021at DALMIL 102 − 95

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Mar 30vs MIN94 − 124L
Mar 27at POR100 − 93W
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W

MIL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 29vs LAC113 − 127L
Mar 28vs SA95 − 127L
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W
Mar 14at ATL99 − 122L
Mar 12at MIA105 − 112L