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Timberwolves at Mavericks

NBA · Monday, Mar 30 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final MIN 124 – DAL 94
← NBA / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN35213830124
DAL2323252394
Team box
MIN·DAL
51-96
field goals
31-89
14-31
3-pointers
7-29
8-12
free throws
25-34
51
rebounds
53
33
assists
21
11
turnovers
15
68
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Julius RandleMIN312434
Daniel GaffordDAL242182
Ayo DosunmuMIN33181512
Anthony EdwardsMIN231724
Brandon WilliamsDAL281567
Donte DiVincenzoMIN301532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +33
MIN +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 4 · MIN 33lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 68%, DAL 32% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
MIN by 6.5
Expected score
MIN 119.5 – 113.0 DAL
Expected total
232.6
TimberwolvesThe matchupMavericks
−211Our fair odds+211
119.5Expected points113.0
+0.47Power rating−0.50
117.9Points / game113.9
114.4Allowed / game118.9
48.1FG%47.1
37.03P%34.0
44.6Rebounds / game44.5
45−29Season record24−50
5−5Last 103−7
Enrique Freeman · Jaden McDaniels
Rocco Zikarsky · Zyon PullinOutDereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · DAL chance
Our model fair67.9%32.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−21168%————
DALDallas Mavericks+21132%————
SpreadMIN by 6.5
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−6.5our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.6
Over232.6our total————
Under232.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 6.5 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 47 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%
← MIN wins byDAL wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more58%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more42%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.6 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAyo Dosunmustarted
FJulius Randlestarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
GRyan Nembhardstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·DAL
Mar 28 vs DET
last game
Mar 27 at POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 30, 5:00 PM ET
Minnesota Timberwolves
MINEnrique Freeman · g league - two-wayOut
MINJaden McDaniels · left knee; patella tendinopathyOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut
MINZyon Pullin · g league - two-wayOut
MINAnthony Edwards · right knee; patellofemoral pain syndromeQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainDoubtful
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALMarvin Bagley III · left shoulder; impingementQuestionable
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALNaji Marshall · illness; illnessQuestionable
DALP.J. Washington · illness; illnessQuestionable
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayQuestionable
DALDaniel Gafford · right shoulder; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
MIN·DAL
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
−0.50
117.9
points / game
113.9
114.4
points allowed / game
118.9
45−29
season record
24−50
25−14
home record
14−23
20−15
away record
10−27
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
48.1
FG%
47.1
37.0
3P%
34.0
44.6
rebounds / game
44.5
26.1
assists / game
25.3
14.9
turnovers / game
14.8
49.9
points in paint / game
53.5

Rating Trend

MIN · DAL · 146 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 4−6
Feb 20at MINMIN 122 − 111
Jan 28at DALMIN 118 − 105
Nov 17, 2025at MINMIN 120 − 96
Jan 22, 2025at DALMIN 115 − 114
Dec 25, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 99
Oct 29, 2024at MINDAL 120 − 114
May 30, 2024at MINDAL 124 − 103post
May 28, 2024at DALMIN 105 − 100post
May 26, 2024at DALDAL 116 − 107post
May 24, 2024at MINDAL 109 − 108post

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 28vs DET87 − 109L
Mar 25vs HOU110 − 108W
Mar 22at BOS102 − 92W
Mar 20vs POR104 − 108L
Mar 18vs UTAH147 − 111W
Mar 17vs PHX116 − 104W
Mar 15at OKC103 − 116L
Mar 13at GS127 − 117W
Mar 11at LAC128 − 153L
Mar 10at LAL106 − 120L

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 27at POR100 − 93W
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L