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Mavericks at Trail Blazers

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final DAL 100 – POR 93
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL32242321100
POR2229251793
Team box
DAL·POR
36-81
field goals
31-79
7-24
3-pointers
8-30
21-30
free throws
23-33
37
rebounds
48
24
assists
16
17
turnovers
25
52
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL272693
Cooper FlaggDAL382432
Jrue HolidayPOR352343
Deni AvdijaPOR382096
Naji MarshallDAL331933
Jerami GrantPOR291940

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 3 · DAL 17lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 36%, POR 64% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
POR by 4.7
Expected score
POR 118.4 – 113.8 DAL
Expected total
232.2
MavericksThe matchupTrail Blazers
+179Our fair odds−179
113.8Expected points118.4
−0.50Power rating−0.12
114.0Points / game115.5
119.3Allowed / game116.7
47.2FG%45.4
34.03P%34.1
44.6Rebounds / game46.0
23−50Season record37−37
2−8Last 107−3
Caleb Martin · Daniel Gafford
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOutChris Youngblood · Damian Lillard
Hansen Yang · Jayson Kent
Shaedon Sharpe

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · POR chance
Our model fair35.8%64.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+17936%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−17964%————
SpreadPOR by 4.7
DALDallas Mavericks+4.7our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers−4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.2
Over232.2our total————
Under232.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Portland Trail Blazers by 4.7 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 3%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%
← DAL wins byPOR wins by →
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 5 or more53%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 10 or more38%
Portland Trail Blazers wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.2 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.568%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.529%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GMax Christiestarted
FDwight Powellstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FNaji Marshallstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
FJerami Grantstarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·POR
Mar 25 at DEN
last game
Mar 25 vs MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALCaleb Martin · right plantar fascia; strainOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right shoulder; sprainOut
DALDereck Lively II · right foot; surgeryOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALJohn Poulakidas · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALMoussa Cisse · g league - two-wayDoubtful
DALTyler Smith · g league - two-wayProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORChris Youngblood · g league - two-wayOut
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORHansen Yang · g league - on assignmentOut
PORJayson Kent · g league - two-wayOut
PORShaedon Sharpe · left fibula; stress reactionOut
PORVit Krejci · left calf; contusionDoubtful
PORRobert Williams III · left knee; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
DAL·POR
−0.50
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
114.0
points / game
115.5
119.3
points allowed / game
116.7
23−50
season record
37−37
14−23
home record
20−16
9−27
away record
17−21
L5
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
7−3
47.2
FG%
45.4
34.0
3P%
34.1
44.6
rebounds / game
46.0
25.4
assists / game
25.2
14.8
turnovers / game
17.4
53.5
points in paint / game
48.4

Rating Trend

DAL · POR · 143 days
Dallas MavericksPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 2−8
Dec 29, 2025at PORPOR 125 − 122
Nov 16, 2025at DALDAL 138 − 133
Jan 9, 2025at DALDAL 117 − 111
Dec 28, 2024at PORPOR 126 − 122
Dec 23, 2024at DALDAL 132 − 108
Dec 1, 2024at PORDAL 137 − 131
Jan 5, 2024at DALDAL 139 − 103
Jan 3, 2024at DALDAL 126 − 97
Dec 16, 2023at PORDAL 131 − 120
Dec 8, 2023at PORDAL 125 − 112

DAL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Mar 25at DEN135 − 142L
Mar 23vs GS131 − 137L
Mar 21vs LAC131 − 138L
Mar 18vs ATL120 − 135L
Mar 16at NO111 − 129L
Mar 15at CLE130 − 120W
Mar 13vs CLE105 − 138L
Mar 12at MEM120 − 112W
Mar 10at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 8at TOR92 − 122L

POR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 25vs MIL130 − 99W
Mar 23vs BKN134 − 99W
Mar 22at DEN112 − 128L
Mar 20at MIN108 − 104W
Mar 18at IND127 − 119W
Mar 16at BKN114 − 95W
Mar 15at PHI103 − 109L
Mar 13vs UTAH124 − 114W
Mar 10vs CHA101 − 103L
Mar 8vs IND131 − 111W