bayesRatings

Suns at Grizzlies

NBA · Monday, Mar 30 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final PHX 131 – MEM 105
← NBA / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX34312640131
MEM31302816105
Team box
PHX·MEM
55-109
field goals
38-75
17-45
3-pointers
11-30
4-8
free throws
18-20
47
rebounds
33
39
assists
26
11
turnovers
23
68
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Devin BookerPHX263625
Jalen GreenPHX242161
Tyler BurtonMEM321741
Cam SpencerMEM181635
GG JacksonMEM171442
Jahmai MashackMEM371432

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +27
PHX +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 6 · PHX 27lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 56%, MEM 44% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
PHX by 1.2
Expected score
PHX 115.5 – 114.3 MEM
Expected total
229.8
SunsThe matchupGrizzlies
−126Our fair odds+126
115.5Expected points114.3
+0.08Power rating−0.37
112.7Points / game115.1
111.1Allowed / game119.2
45.6FG%45.9
36.13P%35.3
43.2Rebounds / game42.9
41−33Season record25−49
4−6Last 102−8
Amir Coffey · Dillon Brooks
Haywood Highsmith · Mark WilliamsOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jaylen Wells · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · MEM chance
Our model fair55.8%44.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns−12656%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+12644%————
SpreadPHX by 1.2
PHXPhoenix Suns−1.2our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 1.2 expected
Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%
← PHX wins byMEM wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more43%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more29%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FOso Ighodarostarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
GJahmai Mashackstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·MEM
Mar 28 vs UTAH
last game
Mar 28 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 30, 5:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXAmir Coffey · left ankle; sprainOut
PHXDillon Brooks · left hand; fractureOut
PHXHaywood Highsmith · right knee; injury managementOut
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXGrayson Allen · left knee; injury managementQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; tendon avulsion fractureOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle and elbow; surgery recoveryOut
MEMJavon Small · low back; sorenessDoubtful
MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper · right wrist; sorenessDoubtful
and 3 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
PHX·MEM
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
112.7
points / game
115.1
111.1
points allowed / game
119.2
41−33
season record
25−49
24−15
home record
14−23
17−18
away record
11−26
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
45.6
FG%
45.9
36.1
3P%
35.3
43.2
rebounds / game
42.9
24.8
assists / game
28.2
14.4
turnovers / game
15.0
42.8
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

PHX · MEM · 146 days
Phoenix SunsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 6−4
Jan 7at MEMPHX 117 − 98
Oct 29, 2025at PHXMEM 114 − 113
Mar 10, 2025at MEMMEM 120 − 118
Feb 25, 2025at MEMMEM 151 − 148
Feb 11, 2025at PHXMEM 119 − 112
Dec 31, 2024at PHXMEM 117 − 112
Jan 7, 2024at PHXMEM 121 − 115
Dec 2, 2023at PHXPHX 116 − 109
Nov 24, 2023at MEMPHX 110 − 89
Jan 22, 2023at PHXPHX 112 − 110

PHX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 28vs UTAH134 − 109W
Mar 24vs DEN123 − 125L
Mar 22vs TOR120 − 98W
Mar 21vs MIL105 − 108L
Mar 19at SA100 − 101L
Mar 17at MIN104 − 116L
Mar 16at BOS112 − 120L
Mar 13at TOR115 − 122L
Mar 12at IND123 − 108W
Mar 10at MIL129 − 114W

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L