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Bulls at Grizzlies

NBA · Saturday, Mar 28 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final CHI 124 – MEM 125
← NBA / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI30283036124
MEM28284227125
Team box
CHI·MEM
41-82
field goals
50-107
10-33
3-pointers
12-38
32-43
free throws
13-17
53
rebounds
37
26
assists
31
23
turnovers
14
60
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Matas BuzelisCHI3929103
Collin SextonCHI302612
Cedric CowardMEM242494
Tre JonesCHI291996
Josh GiddeyCHI35181310
Tyler BurtonMEM271853

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +11
CHI +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 11 · CHI 5lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 45%, MEM 55% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
MEM by 2.3
Expected score
MEM 122.1 – 119.8 CHI
Expected total
241.9
BullsThe matchupGrizzlies
+121Our fair odds−121
119.8Expected points122.1
−0.35Power rating−0.37
116.3Points / game115.0
120.9Allowed / game119.1
46.9FG%45.8
36.23P%35.4
45.1Rebounds / game42.9
29−44Season record24−49
3−7Last 101−9
Anfernee Simons · Guerschon Yabusele
Jaden Ivey · Jalen Smith
Mac McClungOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jaylen Wells · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · MEM chance
Our model fair45.2%54.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+12145%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−12155%————
SpreadMEM by 2.3
CHIChicago Bulls+2.3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 241.9
Over241.9our total————
Under241.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 2.3 expected
Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← CHI wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more47%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more32%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

241.9 expected
191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: <1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 1%226 points: 1%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 2%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: 1%275 points: 1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%303 points: <1%304 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 231.568%
Total over 241.549%
Total over 251.531%
Total from 232 to 25137%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
FLeonard Millerstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
GRayan Rupertstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·MEM
Mar 27 at OKC
last game
Mar 27 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 28, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIGuerschon Yabusele · left ankle; sprain; injury managementOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainOut
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINick Richards · right elbow; sprainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIYuki Kawamura · g league - two-wayOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; injury managementOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right ankle; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle and elbow; surgery recoveryOut
MEMCam Spencer · low back; sorenessDoubtful
MEMTaj Gibson · right foot; sorenessDoubtful
and 3 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
CHI·MEM
−0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
116.3
points / game
115.0
120.9
points allowed / game
119.1
29−44
season record
24−49
18−20
home record
13−23
11−24
away record
11−26
L2
streak
L5
3−7
last 10
1−9
46.9
FG%
45.8
36.2
3P%
35.4
45.1
rebounds / game
42.9
28.7
assists / game
28.1
15.0
turnovers / game
15.1
52.1
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

CHI · MEM · 144 days
Chicago BullsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 4−5
Mar 16at CHICHI 132 − 107
Nov 23, 2024at CHIMEM 142 − 131
Oct 28, 2024at MEMCHI 126 − 123
Feb 8, 2024at MEMCHI 118 − 110
Jan 20, 2024at CHICHI 125 − 96
Apr 2, 2023at CHICHI 128 − 107
Feb 7, 2023at MEMMEM 104 − 89
Feb 26, 2022at CHIMEM 116 − 110
Jan 17, 2022at MEMMEM 119 − 106

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 27at OKC113 − 131L
Mar 25at PHI137 − 157L
Mar 23vs HOU132 − 124W
Mar 19vs CLE110 − 115L
Mar 18vs TOR109 − 139L
Mar 16vs MEM132 − 107W
Mar 13at LAC108 − 119L
Mar 12at LAL130 − 142L
Mar 10at GS130 − 124W
Mar 8at SAC110 − 126L

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L
Mar 12vs DAL112 − 120L
Mar 10at PHI129 − 139L