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Bulls at Thunder

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final CHI 113 – OKC 131
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI32352125113
OKC29333336131
Team box
CHI·OKC
41-98
field goals
47-101
15-47
3-pointers
14-45
16-21
free throws
23-31
47
rebounds
58
25
assists
29
12
turnovers
10
50
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC292525
Collin SextonCHI302233
Tre JonesCHI262179
Cason WallaceOKC312152
Isaac OkoroCHI312040
Jalen WilliamsOKC271868

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +24
CHI +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 24 · CHI 9lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 14%, OKC 86% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
OKC by 15.1
Expected score
OKC 123.3 – 108.2 CHI
Expected total
231.6
BullsThe matchupThunder
+605Our fair odds−605
108.2Expected points123.3
−0.35Power rating+1.26
116.3Points / game118.6
120.8Allowed / game107.6
47.0FG%48.3
36.23P%36.1
45.1Rebounds / game44.0
29−43Season record57−16
4−6Last 109−1
Anfernee Simons · Jaden Ivey
Jalen Smith · Mac McClung
Noa EssengueOutBrooks Barnhizer · Chet Holmgren
Nikola Topic · Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · OKC chance
Our model fair14.2%85.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bulls+60514%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−60586%————
SpreadOKC by 15.1
CHIChicago Bulls+15.1our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−15.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.6
Over231.6our total————
Under231.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 15.1 expected
Chicago Bulls by 53 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 52 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 51 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 50 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 49 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 48 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 47 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 46 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← CHI wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more78%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more65%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more50%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.6 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Chicago Bulls
GTre Jonesstarted
GJosh Giddeystarted
FGuerschon Yabuselestarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·OKC
Mar 25 at PHI
last game
Mar 25 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJaden Ivey · left patellofemoral; pain syndromeOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainOut
CHIMac McClung · g league - two-wayOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIYuki Kawamura · g league - two-wayOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; sprainOut
CHIGuerschon Yabusele · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
CHINick Richards · right elbow; sprainQuestionable
CHIIsaac Okoro · right patellofemoral; pain syndromeProbable
and 1 more
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCChet Holmgren · right hip; contusionOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
CHI·OKC
−0.35
rating (0 = average)
+1.26
116.3
points / game
118.6
120.8
points allowed / game
107.6
29−43
season record
57−16
18−20
home record
29−7
11−23
away record
28−9
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
9−1
47.0
FG%
48.3
36.2
3P%
36.1
45.1
rebounds / game
44.0
28.8
assists / game
25.5
15.0
turnovers / game
12.5
52.1
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

CHI · OKC · 143 days
Chicago BullsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OKC 7−2
Mar 3at CHIOKC 116 − 108
Mar 31, 2025at OKCOKC 145 − 117
Oct 26, 2024at CHIOKC 114 − 95
Nov 22, 2023at OKCOKC 116 − 102
Oct 25, 2023at CHIOKC 124 − 104
Jan 13, 2023at CHIOKC 124 − 110
Nov 25, 2022at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Feb 12, 2022at CHICHI 106 − 101
Jan 24, 2022at OKCCHI 111 − 110

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 25at PHI137 − 157L
Mar 23vs HOU132 − 124W
Mar 19vs CLE110 − 115L
Mar 18vs TOR109 − 139L
Mar 16vs MEM132 − 107W
Mar 13at LAC108 − 119L
Mar 12at LAL130 − 142L
Mar 10at GS130 − 124W
Mar 8at SAC110 − 126L
Mar 5at PHX105 − 103W

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Mar 25at BOS109 − 119L
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W
Mar 7vs GS104 − 97W
Mar 4at NY103 − 100W