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Celtics at Bucks

NBA · Friday, Apr 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final BOS 133 – MIL 101
← NBA / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS43323028133
MIL26292125101
Team box
BOS·MIL
50-89
field goals
35-83
17-37
3-pointers
21-47
16-19
free throws
10-13
48
rebounds
30
33
assists
24
9
turnovers
13
56
points in paint
22
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS302634
Jayson TatumBOS3123119
Neemias QuetaBOS2919102
Taurean PrinceMIL251802
Derrick WhiteBOS311735
Payton PritchardBOS261636

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +35
BOS +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 0 · BOS 35lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 74%, MIL 26% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
BOS by 9.8
Expected score
BOS 113.9 – 104.1 MIL
Expected total
218.0
CelticsThe matchupBucks
−289Our fair odds+289
113.9Expected points104.1
+0.86Power rating−0.44
114.4Points / game110.6
107.2Allowed / game116.7
46.6FG%47.7
36.43P%38.7
46.5Rebounds / game40.8
51−25Season record30−46
8−2Last 103−7
Nikola VucevicOutBobby Portis · Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kevin Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIL chance
Our model fair74.3%25.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−28974%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+28926%————
SpreadBOS by 9.8
BOSBoston Celtics−9.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks+9.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.0
Over218.0our total————
Under218.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 9.8 expected
Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMIL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more68%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more51%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.0 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.568%
Total over 218.548%
Total over 228.529%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GAJ Greenstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
FPete Nancestarted
FOusmane Diengstarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIL
Apr 1 at MIA
last game
Apr 1 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 3, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILBobby Portis · left wrist; sprainOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; hyperextension; bone bruiseOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · right knee; synovitisOut
MILGary Trent Jr. · left hip; pointerQuestionable
MILThanasis Antetokounmpo · left calf; strainQuestionable
MILJericho Sims · right patella; tendonopathyProbable
MILRyan Rollins · right hip; strainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
BOS·MIL
+0.86
rating (0 = average)
−0.44
114.4
points / game
110.6
107.2
points allowed / game
116.7
51−25
season record
30−46
26−11
home record
17−21
25−14
away record
13−25
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
3−7
46.6
FG%
47.7
36.4
3P%
38.7
46.5
rebounds / game
40.8
24.5
assists / game
25.6
12.2
turnovers / game
15.0
44.0
points in paint / game
42.1

Rating Trend

BOS · MIL · 150 days
Boston CelticsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 3−7
Mar 2at MILBOS 108 − 81
Feb 1at BOSBOS 107 − 79
Dec 11, 2025at MILMIL 116 − 101
Dec 6, 2024at BOSBOS 111 − 105
Nov 10, 2024at MILBOS 113 − 107
Oct 28, 2024at BOSBOS 119 − 108
Apr 9, 2024at MILMIL 104 − 91
Mar 20, 2024at BOSBOS 122 − 119
Jan 11, 2024at MILMIL 135 − 102
Nov 22, 2023at BOSBOS 119 − 116

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Apr 1at MIA147 − 129W
Mar 30at ATL102 − 112L
Mar 29at CHA114 − 99W
Mar 27vs ATL109 − 102W
Mar 25vs OKC119 − 109W
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W

MIL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 1at HOU113 − 119L
Mar 31vs DAL123 − 99W
Mar 29vs LAC113 − 127L
Mar 28vs SA95 − 127L
Mar 25at POR99 − 130L
Mar 23at LAC96 − 129L
Mar 21at PHX108 − 105W
Mar 19at UTAH96 − 128L
Mar 17vs CLE116 − 123L
Mar 15vs IND134 − 123W