bayesRatings

Celtics at Hornets

NBA · Sunday, Mar 29 · 5:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final BOS 114 – CHA 99
← NBA / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS27362625114
CHA2128262499
Team box
BOS·CHA
42-83
field goals
36-83
14-34
3-pointers
12-43
16-22
free throws
15-19
39
rebounds
37
23
assists
19
7
turnovers
12
52
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jayson TatumBOS313258
Payton PritchardBOS372866
LaMelo BallCHA261943
Neemias QuetaBOS291781
Baylor ScheiermanBOS281413
Miles BridgesCHA291422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +20
BOS +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 3 · BOS 20lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 64%, CHA 36% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
BOS by 4.8
Expected score
BOS 110.3 – 105.5 CHA
Expected total
215.8
CelticsThe matchupHornets
−181Our fair odds+181
110.3Expected points105.5
+0.82Power rating+0.01
114.1Points / game116.3
106.9Allowed / game111.7
46.4FG%46.2
36.23P%38.1
46.5Rebounds / game46.3
49−24Season record39−35
7−3Last 107−3
Derrick White · Jaylen Brown
Nikola VucevicOutAntonio Reeves · Grant Williams
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · CHA chance
Our model fair64.4%35.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−18164%————
CHACharlotte Hornets+18136%————
SpreadBOS by 4.8
BOSBoston Celtics−4.8our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets+4.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 215.8
Over215.8our total————
Under215.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 4.8 expected
Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%
← BOS wins byCHA wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more53%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more38%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

215.8 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 205.570%
Total over 215.550%
Total over 225.530%
Total from 206 to 22540%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GPayton Pritchardstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·CHA
Mar 27 vs ATL
last game
Mar 28 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSDerrick White · right knee; contusionOut
BOSJaylen Brown · left achilles; tendinitisOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; injury managementOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
BOS·CHA
+0.82
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
114.1
points / game
116.3
106.9
points allowed / game
111.7
49−24
season record
39−35
26−11
home record
19−18
23−13
away record
20−17
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
46.4
FG%
46.2
36.2
3P%
38.1
46.5
rebounds / game
46.3
24.4
assists / game
26.4
12.3
turnovers / game
15.6
43.9
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

BOS · CHA · 145 days
Boston CelticsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 2−8
Mar 4at BOSCHA 118 − 89
Apr 13, 2025at BOSBOS 93 − 86
Apr 11, 2025at BOSBOS 130 − 94
Nov 2, 2024at CHABOS 113 − 103
Nov 1, 2024at CHABOS 124 − 109
Apr 12, 2024at BOSBOS 131 − 98
Apr 1, 2024at CHABOS 118 − 104
Nov 20, 2023at CHACHA 121 − 118
Feb 10, 2023at BOSBOS 127 − 116
Jan 16, 2023at CHABOS 130 − 118

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 27vs ATL109 − 102W
Mar 25vs OKC119 − 109W
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 28vs PHI114 − 118L
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W
Mar 24vs SAC134 − 90W
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L