bayesRatings

Kings at Hornets

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 24 · 6:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final SAC 90 – CHA 134
← NBA / Mar 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC2522291490
CHA34384121134
Team box
SAC·CHA
37-91
field goals
48-94
9-28
3-pointers
26-55
7-11
free throws
12-16
35
rebounds
57
27
assists
32
12
turnovers
15
48
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Coby WhiteCHA182751
Daeqwon PlowdenSAC362221
LaMelo BallCHA232068
Devin CarterSAC341833
Moussa DiabateCHA2417112
Maxime RaynaudSAC301670

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +46
SAC +46
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 46 · SAC 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 27%, CHA 73% · Updated Mar 24

Expected margin
CHA by 9.9
Expected score
CHA 118.2 – 108.3 SAC
Expected total
226.6
KingsThe matchupHornets
+265Our fair odds−265
108.3Expected points118.2
−0.76Power rating+0.01
111.0Points / game116.1
121.0Allowed / game112.1
46.7FG%46.1
34.03P%38.1
42.2Rebounds / game46.1
19−53Season record37−34
5−5Last 107−3
De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Drew Eubanks · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan MurrayOutAntonio Reeves · PJ Hall
Tidjane Salaun · Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · CHA chance
Our model fair27.4%72.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+26527%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−26573%————
SpreadCHA by 9.9
SACSacramento Kings+9.9our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−9.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.6
Over226.6our total————
Under226.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 9.9 expected
Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 52 points: <1%
← SAC wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more66%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more51%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.550%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GMalik Monkstarted
GDevin Carterstarted
GPatrick Baldwin Jr.started
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·CHA
Mar 22 vs BKN
last game
Mar 21 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 24, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; ucl repairOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACKillian Hayes · left foot; sorenessOut
SACNique Clifford · left foot; sorenessOut
SACPrecious Achiuwa · lower back; sorenessOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right foot; sorenessOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut
CHAPat Connaughton · illness; illnessQuestionable
CHAKon Knueppel · low back; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
SAC·CHA
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
111.0
points / game
116.1
121.0
points allowed / game
112.1
19−53
season record
37−34
13−25
home record
17−17
6−28
away record
20−17
W1
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
46.7
FG%
46.1
34.0
3P%
38.1
42.2
rebounds / game
46.1
25.6
assists / game
26.5
14.2
turnovers / game
15.6
50.1
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

SAC · CHA · 140 days
Sacramento KingsCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHA 4−5
Mar 11at SACCHA 117 − 109
Apr 4, 2025at CHASAC 125 − 102
Feb 24, 2025at SACSAC 130 − 88
Jan 10, 2024at CHASAC 123 − 98
Jan 2, 2024at SACCHA 111 − 104
Dec 19, 2022at SACCHA 125 − 119
Oct 31, 2022at CHASAC 115 − 108
Dec 10, 2021at CHACHA 124 − 123
Nov 5, 2021at SACSAC 140 − 110

SAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 22vs BKN126 − 122W
Mar 19vs PHI118 − 139L
Mar 17vs SA104 − 132L
Mar 15vs UTAH116 − 111W
Mar 14at LAC118 − 109W
Mar 11vs CHA109 − 117L
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L
Mar 4at BOS118 − 89W
Mar 3vs DAL117 − 90W