bayesRatings

Nets at Kings

NBA · Sunday, Mar 22 · 5:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final BKN 122 – SAC 126
← NBA / Mar 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN34282040122
SAC30272841126
Team box
BKN·SAC
46-88
field goals
43-82
14-33
3-pointers
14-27
16-20
free throws
26-34
25
rebounds
51
30
assists
30
7
turnovers
17
60
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Malik MonkSAC303226
Maxime RaynaudSAC3622102
Ben SarafBKN292235
Malachi SmithBKN291824
Ziaire WilliamsBKN221823
Nolan TraoreBKN261724

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +8
BKN +8
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 8 · BKN 6lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 39%, SAC 61% · Updated Mar 22

Expected margin
SAC by 4.5
Expected score
SAC 112.8 – 108.3 BKN
Expected total
221.2
NetsThe matchupKings
+157Our fair odds−157
108.3Expected points112.8
−0.98Power rating−0.72
106.2Points / game110.8
115.3Allowed / game121.0
44.3FG%46.6
34.33P%33.7
40.2Rebounds / game42.1
17−53Season record18−53
2−8Last 104−6
Day'Ron Sharpe · Egor Demin
Michael Porter Jr. · Nic Claxton
Noah ClowneyOut (5 each)De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Drew Eubanks · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · SAC chance
Our model fair39.0%61.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+15739%————
SACSacramento Kings−15761%————
SpreadSAC by 4.5
BKNBrooklyn Nets+4.5our margin————
SACSacramento Kings−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.2
Over221.2our total————
Under221.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Sacramento Kings by 4.5 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 3%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%
← BKN wins bySAC wins by →
Sacramento Kings wins by 5 or more52%
Sacramento Kings wins by 10 or more37%
Sacramento Kings wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.2 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.569%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GDrake Powellstarted
GNolan Traorestarted
FZiaire Williamsstarted
FDanny Wolfstarted
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GKillian Hayesstarted
GNique Cliffordstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·SAC
Mar 20 vs NY
last game
Mar 19 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 22, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDay'Ron Sharpe · left thumb; surgeryOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia; injury managementOut
BKNMichael Porter Jr. · left hamstring; strainOut
BKNNic Claxton · restOut
BKNNoah Clowney · right wrist; sprainOut
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; ucl repairOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · right ankle; sorenessOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right foot; sorenessOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
SACDaeqwon Plowden · right foot; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
BKN·SAC
−0.98
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
106.2
points / game
110.8
115.3
points allowed / game
121.0
17−53
season record
18−53
9−26
home record
12−25
8−27
away record
6−28
L6
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
4−6
44.3
FG%
46.6
34.3
3P%
33.7
40.2
rebounds / game
42.1
25.2
assists / game
25.5
16.0
turnovers / game
14.2
43.7
points in paint / game
50.1

Rating Trend

BKN · SAC · 138 days
Brooklyn NetsSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SAC 6−2
Jan 27, 2025at BKNSAC 110 − 96
Nov 24, 2024at SACBKN 108 − 103
Apr 7, 2024at BKNSAC 107 − 77
Dec 11, 2023at SACSAC 131 − 118
Mar 16, 2023at BKNSAC 101 − 96
Nov 15, 2022at SACSAC 153 − 121
Feb 14, 2022at BKNBKN 109 − 85
Feb 2, 2022at SACSAC 112 − 101

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Mar 20vs NY92 − 93L
Mar 18vs OKC92 − 121L
Mar 16vs POR95 − 114L
Mar 14at PHI97 − 104L
Mar 12at ATL97 − 108L
Mar 10vs DET100 − 138L
Mar 9vs MEM126 − 115W
Mar 7at DET107 − 105W
Mar 5at MIA110 − 126L
Mar 3at MIA98 − 124L

SAC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Mar 19vs PHI118 − 139L
Mar 17vs SA104 − 132L
Mar 15vs UTAH116 − 111W
Mar 14at LAC118 − 109W
Mar 11vs CHA109 − 117L
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L
Mar 3vs PHX103 − 114L
Mar 1at LAL104 − 128L