bayesRatings

76ers at Hornets

NBA · Saturday, Mar 28 · 5:00 PM CT · Spectrum Center · Final PHI 118 – CHA 114
← NBA / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI25392826118
CHA36332817114
Team box
PHI·CHA
40-82
field goals
36-96
16-34
3-pointers
17-55
22-29
free throws
25-32
41
rebounds
53
19
assists
18
9
turnovers
9
42
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Brandon MillerCHA342980
Joel EmbiidPHI362962
Paul GeorgePHI3626132
Tyrese MaxeyPHI432678
LaMelo BallCHA372038
Coby WhiteCHA191642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHA +15
PHI +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHA 15 · PHI 4lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 40%, CHA 60% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
CHA by 4.9
Expected score
CHA 115.1 – 110.2 PHI
Expected total
225.3
76ersThe matchupHornets
+149Our fair odds−149
110.2Expected points115.1
−0.18Power rating+0.01
116.2Points / game116.3
116.5Allowed / game111.6
46.2FG%46.3
34.43P%38.2
43.4Rebounds / game46.2
40−33Season record39−34
6−4Last 107−3
Johni BroomeOutAntonio Reeves · Liam McNeeley
PJ Hall · Tidjane Salaun
Tosan Evbuomwan

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · CHA chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+14940%————
CHACharlotte Hornets−14960%————
SpreadCHA by 4.9
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+4.9our margin————
CHACharlotte Hornets−4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.3
Over225.3our total————
Under225.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 4.9 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%
← PHI wins byCHA wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more54%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more38%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.3 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Charlotte Hornets
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
FMoussa Diabatestarted
FBrandon Millerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·CHA
Mar 25 vs CHI
last game
Mar 26 vs NY
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 28, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
PHIKelly Oubre Jr. · left elbow; sprainQuestionable
PHITyrese Maxey · right finger; tendon strainQuestionable
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHALiam McNeeley · g league - on assignmentOut
CHAPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
CHATidjane Salaun · left calf; strainOut
CHATosan Evbuomwan · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
PHI·CHA
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
116.2
points / game
116.3
116.5
points allowed / game
111.6
40−33
season record
39−34
21−17
home record
19−17
19−16
away record
20−17
W1
streak
W5
6−4
last 10
7−3
46.2
FG%
46.3
34.4
3P%
38.2
43.4
rebounds / game
46.2
24.8
assists / game
26.6
13.8
turnovers / game
15.7
50.0
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

PHI · CHA · 144 days
Philadelphia 76ersCharlotte Hornets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHA 1−9
Jan 26at CHACHA 130 − 93
Oct 25, 2025at PHIPHI 125 − 121
Dec 20, 2024at PHIPHI 108 − 98
Dec 16, 2024at CHAPHI 121 − 108
Dec 3, 2024at CHAPHI 110 − 104
Nov 10, 2024at PHIPHI 107 − 105
Mar 16, 2024at PHIPHI 109 − 98
Mar 1, 2024at PHIPHI 121 − 114
Jan 20, 2024at CHAPHI 97 − 89
Dec 16, 2023at CHAPHI 135 − 82

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W
Mar 14vs BKN104 − 97W
Mar 12at DET109 − 131L
Mar 10vs MEM139 − 129W
Mar 9at CLE101 − 115L

CHA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Mar 26vs NY114 − 103W
Mar 24vs SAC134 − 90W
Mar 21vs MEM124 − 101W
Mar 19vs ORL130 − 111W
Mar 17vs MIA136 − 106W
Mar 14at SA102 − 115L
Mar 11at SAC117 − 109W
Mar 10at POR103 − 101W
Mar 8at PHX99 − 111L
Mar 6vs MIA120 − 128L