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Hawks at Celtics

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 6:30 PM CT · TD Garden · Final ATL 102 – BOS 109
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL29312220102
BOS26293222109
Team box
ATL·BOS
34-87
field goals
38-81
15-42
3-pointers
14-35
19-24
free throws
19-23
35
rebounds
52
23
assists
26
4
turnovers
16
34
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Payton PritchardBOS353674
Jalen JohnsonATL372966
Jayson TatumBOS3726125
CJ McCollumATL342152
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL382045
Luka GarzaBOS151142

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +16
ATL +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 11 · ATL 16lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 29%, BOS 71% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
BOS by 7.2
Expected score
BOS 116.2 – 109.0 ATL
Expected total
225.2
HawksThe matchupCeltics
+243Our fair odds−243
109.0Expected points116.2
+0.14Power rating+0.82
118.4Points / game114.2
116.6Allowed / game107.0
47.4FG%46.4
36.63P%36.1
43.5Rebounds / game46.5
41−32Season record48−24
9−1Last 107−3
Asa Newell · Keshon Gilbert
RayJ DennisOutJaylen Brown · Nikola Vucevic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BOS chance
Our model fair29.2%70.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Hawks+24329%————
BOSBoston Celtics−24371%————
SpreadBOS by 7.2
ATLAtlanta Hawks+7.2our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.2
Over225.2our total————
Under225.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 7.2 expected
Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%
← ATL wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more59%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more44%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

225.2 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.529%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BOS
Mar 25 at DET
last game
Mar 25 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
Atlanta Hawks
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayOut
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayOut
ATLJock Landale · right shoulder; impingementQuestionable
Boston Celtics
BOSJaylen Brown · left achilles; tendinitisOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
ATL·BOS
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.82
118.4
points / game
114.2
116.6
points allowed / game
107.0
41−32
season record
48−24
21−16
home record
25−11
20−16
away record
23−13
W3
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
7−3
47.4
FG%
46.4
36.6
3P%
36.1
43.5
rebounds / game
46.5
30.4
assists / game
24.4
14.3
turnovers / game
12.2
52.2
points in paint / game
44.0

Rating Trend

ATL · BOS · 143 days
Atlanta HawksBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Jan 28at BOSATL 117 − 106
Jan 17at ATLBOS 132 − 106
Jan 18, 2025at BOSATL 119 − 115
Nov 12, 2024at BOSATL 117 − 116
Nov 4, 2024at ATLBOS 123 − 93
Mar 28, 2024at ATLATL 123 − 122
Mar 25, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 118
Feb 7, 2024at BOSBOS 125 − 117
Nov 26, 2023at BOSBOS 113 − 103
Apr 27, 2023at ATLBOS 128 − 120post

ATL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W
Mar 7vs PHI125 − 116W

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Mar 25vs OKC119 − 109W
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L
Mar 8at CLE109 − 98W
Mar 6vs DAL120 − 100W