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Celtics at Heat

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final BOS 147 – MIA 129
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS53273235147
MIA33244527129
Team box
BOS·MIA
56-96
field goals
44-95
21-44
3-pointers
24-47
14-20
free throws
17-23
48
rebounds
37
34
assists
27
9
turnovers
9
58
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS374337
Bam AdebayoMIA3829102
Jayson TatumBOS37251811
Sam HauserBOS292330
Davion MitchellMIA402127
Tyler HerroMIA401837

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +27
BOS +27
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 4 · BOS 27lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 63%, MIA 37% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
BOS by 4.6
Expected score
BOS 114.0 – 109.5 MIA
Expected total
223.5
CelticsThe matchupHeat
−169Our fair odds+169
114.0Expected points109.5
+0.86Power rating+0.10
114.0Points / game120.2
106.9Allowed / game117.8
46.4FG%46.5
36.33P%35.4
46.5Rebounds / game46.7
50−25Season record40−36
7−3Last 103−7
Nikola VucevicOutNorman Powell · Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · MIA chance
Our model fair62.9%37.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−16963%————
MIAMiami Heat+16937%————
SpreadBOS by 4.6
BOSBoston Celtics−4.6our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.5
Over223.5our total————
Under223.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 4.6 expected
Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%
← BOS wins byMIA wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more53%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more37%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.5 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
FJayson Tatumstarted
FSam Hauserstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·MIA
Mar 30 at ATL
last game
Mar 30 vs PHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger; fractureOut
BOSAmari Williams · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
BOSJohn Tonje · g league - two-wayQuestionable
BOSMax Shulga · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIANorman Powell · upper respiratory; illnessOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAAndrew Wiggins · left big toe; sesamoiditisProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
BOS·MIA
+0.86
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
114.0
points / game
120.2
106.9
points allowed / game
117.8
50−25
season record
40−36
26−11
home record
24−14
24−14
away record
16−22
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
46.4
FG%
46.5
36.3
3P%
35.4
46.5
rebounds / game
46.7
24.3
assists / game
28.6
12.3
turnovers / game
13.7
43.8
points in paint / game
54.5

Rating Trend

BOS · MIA · 148 days
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 1−9
Feb 6at BOSBOS 98 − 96
Jan 15at MIABOS 119 − 114
Dec 19, 2025at BOSBOS 129 − 116
Apr 2, 2025at BOSMIA 124 − 103
Mar 14, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 91
Feb 10, 2025at MIABOS 103 − 85
Dec 2, 2024at BOSBOS 108 − 89
May 1, 2024at BOSBOS 118 − 84post
Apr 29, 2024at MIABOS 102 − 88post
Apr 27, 2024at MIABOS 104 − 84post

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 30at ATL102 − 112L
Mar 29at CHA114 − 99W
Mar 27vs ATL109 − 102W
Mar 25vs OKC119 − 109W
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Mar 30vs PHI119 − 109W
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W