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76ers at Heat

NBA · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final PHI 109 – MIA 119
← NBA / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI34272622109
MIA38203328119
Team box
PHI·MIA
40-96
field goals
43-93
12-38
3-pointers
11-40
17-19
free throws
22-29
42
rebounds
57
26
assists
24
10
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyler HerroMIA423043
Joel EmbiidPHI342673
Bam AdebayoMIA4223166
Tyrese MaxeyPHI442379
Pelle LarssonMIA3620103
Paul GeorgePHI351942

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +15
PHI +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 15 · PHI 7lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 38%, MIA 62% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
MIA by 5.1
Expected score
MIA 119.1 – 114.0 PHI
Expected total
233.1
76ersThe matchupHeat
+163Our fair odds−163
114.0Expected points119.1
−0.18Power rating+0.11
116.2Points / game120.3
116.5Allowed / game117.9
46.2FG%46.5
34.63P%35.5
43.4Rebounds / game46.5
41−33Season record39−36
7−3Last 103−7
Johni BroomeOutNorman Powell · Terry Rozier

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+16338%————
MIAMiami Heat−16362%————
SpreadMIA by 5.1
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers+5.1our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−5.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.1
Over233.1our total————
Under233.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 5.1 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more54%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more39%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.1 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.548%
Total over 243.529%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FPaul Georgestarted
FDominick Barlowstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
Mar 28 at CHA
last game
Mar 29 at IND
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 30, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIJohni Broome · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
Miami Heat
MIANorman Powell · upper respiratory; illnessOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIAPelle Larsson · left triceps; contusionProbable
MIATyler Herro · neck; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
PHI·MIA
−0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
116.2
points / game
120.3
116.5
points allowed / game
117.9
41−33
season record
39−36
21−17
home record
23−14
20−16
away record
16−22
W2
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
3−7
46.2
FG%
46.5
34.6
3P%
35.5
43.4
rebounds / game
46.5
24.7
assists / game
28.7
13.7
turnovers / game
13.7
49.9
points in paint / game
54.4

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 146 days
Philadelphia 76ersMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Feb 26at PHIPHI 124 − 117
Nov 23, 2025at PHIMIA 127 − 117
Apr 7, 2025at MIAMIA 117 − 105
Mar 29, 2025at PHIMIA 118 − 95
Feb 5, 2025at PHIMIA 108 − 101
Nov 18, 2024at MIAMIA 106 − 89
Apr 4, 2024at MIAPHI 109 − 105
Mar 18, 2024at PHIPHI 98 − 91
Feb 14, 2024at PHIMIA 109 − 104
Dec 25, 2023at MIAMIA 119 − 113

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Mar 28at CHA118 − 114W
Mar 25vs CHI157 − 137W
Mar 23vs OKC103 − 123L
Mar 21at UTAH126 − 116W
Mar 19at SAC139 − 118W
Mar 17at DEN96 − 124L
Mar 15vs POR109 − 103W
Mar 14vs BKN104 − 97W
Mar 12at DET109 − 131L
Mar 10vs MEM139 − 129W

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 29at IND118 − 135L
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W