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Heat at Pacers

NBA · Sunday, Mar 29 · 4:00 PM CT · Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Final MIA 118 – IND 135
← NBA / Mar 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA36393211118
IND34452927135
Team box
MIA·IND
46-99
field goals
53-92
13-37
3-pointers
18-39
13-18
free throws
11-13
42
rebounds
42
29
assists
36
7
turnovers
12
62
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyler HerroMIA363134
Pascal SiakamIND3130116
Micah PotterIND202150
Kobe BrownIND331845
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA261782
Bam AdebayoMIA3315123

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +17
MIA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 17 · MIA 8lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 61%, IND 39% · Updated Mar 29

Expected margin
MIA by 4.7
Expected score
MIA 120.6 – 116.0 IND
Expected total
236.6
HeatThe matchupPacers
−154Our fair odds+154
120.6Expected points116.0
+0.11Power rating−0.54
120.3Points / game111.9
117.7Allowed / game120.6
46.5FG%45.6
35.53P%35.5
46.6Rebounds / game41.7
39−35Season record16−58
4−6Last 101−9
Jahmir Young · Norman Powell
Terry Rozier · Trevor Keels
Vladislav GoldinOut (5 each)Aaron Nesmith · Ivica Zubac
Jarace Walker · Johnny Furphy
Tyrese Haliburton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · IND chance
Our model fair60.7%39.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat−15461%————
INDIndiana Pacers+15439%————
SpreadMIA by 4.7
MIAMiami Heat−4.7our margin————
INDIndiana Pacers+4.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.6
Over236.6our total————
Under236.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 4.7 expected
Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%
← MIA wins byIND wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more53%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more38%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.6 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GAndrew Nembhardstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FJalen Slawsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·IND
Mar 27 at CLE
last game
Mar 27 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 29, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIANorman Powell · upper respiratory; illnessOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATrevor Keels · g league - two-wayOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJarace Walker · management low back; bruiseOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right acl; tearOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
MIA·IND
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
120.3
points / game
111.9
117.7
points allowed / game
120.6
39−35
season record
16−58
23−14
home record
10−27
16−21
away record
6−31
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
1−9
46.5
FG%
45.6
35.5
3P%
35.5
46.6
rebounds / game
41.7
28.6
assists / game
27.1
13.8
turnovers / game
14.5
54.3
points in paint / game
45.6

Rating Trend

MIA · IND · 145 days
Miami HeatIndiana Pacers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · IND 5−5
Jan 10at INDIND 123 − 99
Dec 27, 2025at MIAMIA 142 − 116
Feb 28, 2025at MIAMIA 125 − 120
Jan 2, 2025at MIAIND 128 − 115
Nov 17, 2024at INDIND 119 − 110
Nov 15, 2024at INDMIA 124 − 111
Apr 7, 2024at INDIND 117 − 115
Dec 2, 2023at MIAIND 144 − 129
Nov 30, 2023at MIAMIA 142 − 132
Feb 8, 2023at MIAMIA 116 − 111

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Mar 27at CLE128 − 149L
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W

IND · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L
Mar 10at SAC109 − 114L