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Heat at Cavaliers

NBA · Friday, Mar 27 · 6:30 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final MIA 128 – CLE 149
← NBA / Mar 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA27194141128
CLE40412840149
Team box
MIA·CLE
40-91
field goals
52-97
15-46
3-pointers
19-41
33-38
free throws
26-31
45
rebounds
46
25
assists
38
13
turnovers
10
46
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Max StrusCLE232981
Evan MobleyCLE2923103
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA212023
Jarrett AllenCLE1818100
James HardenCLE3017514
Norman PowellMIA251532

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +36
MIA +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 36 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 33%, CLE 67% · Updated Mar 27

Expected margin
CLE by 4.9
Expected score
CLE 120.5 – 115.5 MIA
Expected total
236.0
HeatThe matchupCavaliers
+199Our fair odds−199
115.5Expected points120.5
+0.11Power rating+0.59
120.2Points / game119.0
117.3Allowed / game115.0
46.5FG%48.0
35.53P%36.2
46.6Rebounds / game44.3
39−34Season record45−28
5−5Last 106−4
Jahmir Young · Terry Rozier
Trevor Keels · Vladislav GoldinOut (4 each)Craig Porter Jr. · Dean Wade
Jaylon Tyson · Tristan Enaruna

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair33.4%66.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+19933%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−19967%————
SpreadCLE by 4.9
MIAMiami Heat+4.9our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 4.9 expected
Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 1%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more54%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more38%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more25%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GTyler Herrostarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CLE
Mar 25 at CLE
last game
Mar 25 vs MIA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 27, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAJahmir Young · g league - two-wayOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATrevor Keels · g league - two-wayOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIAJaime Jaquez Jr. · right ankle; sprainProbable
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLECraig Porter Jr. · left groin; strainOut
CLEDean Wade · right ankle; sprainOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left great toe; bone bruiseOut
CLETristan Enaruna · g league - two-wayOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right knee; tendonitisProbable
CLEOlivier Sarr · g league - two-wayProbable
CLERiley Minix · g league - two-wayProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
MIA·CLE
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
120.2
points / game
119.0
117.3
points allowed / game
115.0
39−34
season record
45−28
23−14
home record
23−14
16−20
away record
22−14
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
46.5
FG%
48.0
35.5
3P%
36.2
46.6
rebounds / game
44.3
28.7
assists / game
28.2
13.8
turnovers / game
14.0
54.4
points in paint / game
51.1

Rating Trend

MIA · CLE · 143 days
Miami HeatCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 7−3
Mar 25at CLEMIA 120 − 103
Nov 12, 2025at MIACLE 130 − 116
Nov 10, 2025at MIAMIA 140 − 138
Apr 28, 2025at MIACLE 138 − 83post
Apr 26, 2025at MIACLE 124 − 87post
Apr 23, 2025at CLECLE 121 − 112post
Apr 20, 2025at CLECLE 121 − 100post
Mar 5, 2025at CLECLE 112 − 107
Jan 29, 2025at MIACLE 126 − 106
Dec 8, 2024at MIAMIA 122 − 113

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 25at CLE120 − 103W
Mar 23vs SA111 − 136L
Mar 21at HOU122 − 123L
Mar 19vs LAL126 − 134L
Mar 17at CHA106 − 136L
Mar 14vs ORL117 − 121L
Mar 12vs MIL112 − 105W
Mar 10vs WSH150 − 129W
Mar 8vs DET121 − 110W
Mar 6at CHA128 − 120W

CLE · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 25vs MIA103 − 120L
Mar 24vs ORL136 − 131W
Mar 21at NO111 − 106W
Mar 19at CHI115 − 110W
Mar 17at MIL123 − 116W
Mar 15vs DAL120 − 130L
Mar 13at DAL138 − 105W
Mar 11at ORL122 − 128L
Mar 9vs PHI115 − 101W
Mar 8vs BOS98 − 109L