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Celtics at Hawks

NBA · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final BOS 102 – ATL 112
← NBA / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BOS30242226102
ATL29253622112
Team box
BOS·ATL
35-85
field goals
43-92
14-37
3-pointers
15-38
18-26
free throws
11-15
48
rebounds
45
18
assists
28
15
turnovers
11
30
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaylen BrownBOS4029109
Jalen JohnsonATL3620125
Onyeka OkongwuATL3620103
Luka GarzaBOS282091
Dyson DanielsATL381855
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL351746

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +21
BOS +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 21 · BOS 6lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 62%, ATL 38% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
BOS by 4.6
Expected score
BOS 115.1 – 110.5 ATL
Expected total
225.6
CelticsThe matchupHawks
−160Our fair odds+160
115.1Expected points110.5
+0.82Power rating+0.14
114.1Points / game118.3
106.8Allowed / game116.4
46.5FG%47.3
36.23P%36.7
46.4Rebounds / game43.3
50−24Season record42−33
7−3Last 108−2
Jayson Tatum · Nikola VucevicOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATL chance
Our model fair61.6%38.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Celtics−16062%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+16038%————
SpreadBOS by 4.6
BOSBoston Celtics−4.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.6
Over225.6our total————
Under225.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 4.6 expected
Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%
← BOS wins byATL wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more53%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more37%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.6 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.550%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GBaylor Scheiermanstarted
GJordan Walshstarted
CLuka Garzastarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATL
Mar 29 at CHA
last game
Mar 28 vs SAC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 30, 5:00 PM ET
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles repair; managementOut
BOSNikola Vucevic · right ring finger;Out
BOSNeemias Queta · right thumb; sprainDoubtful
BOSRon Harper Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
BOSDerrick White · fracture right knee; contusionProbable
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJock Landale · n/a; illnessQuestionable
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayQuestionable
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
BOS·ATL
+0.82
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
114.1
points / game
118.3
106.8
points allowed / game
116.4
50−24
season record
42−33
26−11
home record
22−16
24−13
away record
20−17
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
8−2
46.5
FG%
47.3
36.2
3P%
36.7
46.4
rebounds / game
43.3
24.4
assists / game
30.3
12.2
turnovers / game
14.2
44.0
points in paint / game
51.9

Rating Trend

BOS · ATL · 146 days
Boston CelticsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Mar 27at BOSBOS 109 − 102
Jan 28at BOSATL 117 − 106
Jan 17at ATLBOS 132 − 106
Jan 18, 2025at BOSATL 119 − 115
Nov 12, 2024at BOSATL 117 − 116
Nov 4, 2024at ATLBOS 123 − 93
Mar 28, 2024at ATLATL 123 − 122
Mar 25, 2024at ATLATL 120 − 118
Feb 7, 2024at BOSBOS 125 − 117
Nov 26, 2023at BOSBOS 113 − 103

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Mar 29at CHA114 − 99W
Mar 27vs ATL109 − 102W
Mar 25vs OKC119 − 109W
Mar 22vs MIN92 − 102L
Mar 20at MEM117 − 112W
Mar 18vs GS120 − 99W
Mar 16vs PHX120 − 112W
Mar 14vs WSH111 − 100W
Mar 12at OKC102 − 104L
Mar 10at SA116 − 125L

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Mar 28vs SAC123 − 113W
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W