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Kings at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Mar 28 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final SAC 113 – ATL 123
← NBA / Mar 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC30242831113
ATL27392235123
Team box
SAC·ATL
45-93
field goals
45-89
12-32
3-pointers
16-41
11-13
free throws
17-22
42
rebounds
40
27
assists
34
15
turnovers
13
56
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL362758
Jalen JohnsonATL3726510
CJ McCollumATL302245
DeMar DeRozanSAC302243
Jock LandaleATL3419134
Maxime RaynaudSAC3018100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +16
SAC +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 16 · SAC 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 25%, ATL 75% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
ATL by 10.2
Expected score
ATL 123.4 – 113.2 SAC
Expected total
236.6
KingsThe matchupHawks
+300Our fair odds−300
113.2Expected points123.4
−0.76Power rating+0.14
110.8Points / game118.2
121.2Allowed / game116.5
46.6FG%47.3
34.03P%36.6
42.0Rebounds / game43.4
19−55Season record41−33
5−5Last 108−2
De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Drew Eubanks · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan MurrayOutJonathan Kuminga · Onyeka Okongwu

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · ATL chance
Our model fair25.0%75.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+30025%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−30075%————
SpreadATL by 10.2
SACSacramento Kings+10.2our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks−10.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.6
Over236.6our total————
Under236.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Hawks by 10.2 expected
Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 3%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 50 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 51 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 52 points: <1%
← SAC wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Hawks wins by 5 or more67%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 10 or more52%
Atlanta Hawks wins by 15 or more37%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.6 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GMalik Monkstarted
GDevin Carterstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GCJ McCollumstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
FJalen Johnsonstarted
FMouhamed Gueyestarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·ATL
Mar 26 at ORL
last game
Mar 27 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 28, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; ucl repairOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right toe; injury managementOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJonathan Kuminga · left knee; injury managementOut
ATLOnyeka Okongwu · left index finger; sprainOut
ATLKeshon Gilbert · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLRayJ Dennis · g league - two-wayDoubtful
ATLAsa Newell · g league - on assignmentQuestionable
ATLDyson Daniels · left great toe; sprainQuestionable
ATLJock Landale · right shoulder; impingementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
SAC·ATL
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
110.8
points / game
118.2
121.2
points allowed / game
116.5
19−55
season record
41−33
13−25
home record
21−16
6−30
away record
20−17
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
8−2
46.6
FG%
47.3
34.0
3P%
36.6
42.0
rebounds / game
43.4
25.6
assists / game
30.3
14.2
turnovers / game
14.2
50.0
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

SAC · ATL · 144 days
Sacramento KingsAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATL 6−3
Nov 12, 2025at SACATL 133 − 100
Nov 18, 2024at SACATL 109 − 108
Nov 1, 2024at ATLSAC 123 − 115
Jan 22, 2024at SACSAC 122 − 107
Dec 29, 2023at ATLSAC 117 − 110
Jan 4, 2023at SACATL 120 − 117
Nov 23, 2022at ATLATL 115 − 106
Jan 26, 2022at ATLATL 121 − 104
Jan 5, 2022at SACATL 108 − 102

SAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Mar 26at ORL117 − 121L
Mar 24at CHA90 − 134L
Mar 22vs BKN126 − 122W
Mar 19vs PHI118 − 139L
Mar 17vs SA104 − 132L
Mar 15vs UTAH116 − 111W
Mar 14at LAC118 − 109W
Mar 11vs CHA109 − 117L
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Mar 27at BOS102 − 109L
Mar 25at DET130 − 129W
Mar 23vs MEM146 − 107W
Mar 21vs GS126 − 110W
Mar 20at HOU95 − 117L
Mar 18at DAL135 − 120W
Mar 16vs ORL124 − 112W
Mar 14vs MIL122 − 99W
Mar 12vs BKN108 − 97W
Mar 10vs DAL124 − 112W