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Kings at Magic

NBA · Thursday, Mar 26 · 6:00 PM CT · Kia Center · Final SAC 117 – ORL 121
← NBA / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC30293127117
ORL39262828121
Team box
SAC·ORL
45-88
field goals
40-74
14-33
3-pointers
13-27
13-16
free throws
28-32
35
rebounds
36
30
assists
22
11
turnovers
12
48
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
DeMar DeRozanSAC3833611
Paolo BancheroORL383097
Desmond BaneORL352306
Daeqwon PlowdenSAC352330
Tristan da SilvaORL321822
Precious AchiuwaSAC341492

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ORL +12
SAC +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ORL 12 · SAC 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 26%, ORL 74% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
ORL by 9.5
Expected score
ORL 117.8 – 108.3 SAC
Expected total
226.1
KingsThe matchupMagic
+280Our fair odds−280
108.3Expected points117.8
−0.76Power rating+0.07
110.8Points / game115.7
121.2Allowed / game114.8
46.6FG%46.4
33.93P%34.0
42.1Rebounds / game43.4
19−54Season record38−34
5−5Last 104−6
De'Andre Hunter · Domantas Sabonis
Drew Eubanks · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan MurrayOutAnthony Black · Colin Castleton
Franz Wagner · Jonathan Isaac

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · ORL chance
Our model fair26.3%73.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+28026%————
ORLOrlando Magic−28074%————
SpreadORL by 9.5
SACSacramento Kings+9.5our margin————
ORLOrlando Magic−9.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.1
Over226.1our total————
Under226.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Orlando Magic by 9.5 expected
Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 46 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 47 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 48 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 49 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 50 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 51 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 52 points: <1%
← SAC wins byORL wins by →
Orlando Magic wins by 5 or more65%
Orlando Magic wins by 10 or more50%
Orlando Magic wins by 15 or more35%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

226.1 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.568%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GMalik Monkstarted
GDevin Carterstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted
CMaxime Raynaudstarted
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banestarted
GJalen Suggsstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
FTristan da Silvastarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·ORL
Mar 24 at CHA
last game
Mar 24 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 26, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDe'Andre Hunter · inflammation left eye; retinal repairOut
SACDomantas Sabonis · left knee; meniscus repairOut
SACDrew Eubanks · left thumb; ucl repairOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle; sprainOut
SACNique Clifford · left midfoot; sprainOut
SACRussell Westbrook · right toe; joint irritationOut
SACZach LaVine · right 5th finger; tendon repairOut
Orlando Magic
ORLAnthony Black · left lateral abdominal; strainOut
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprain injury managementOut
ORLJonathan Isaac · left knee; sprainOut
ORLJalen Suggs · n/a; illnessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
SAC·ORL
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
110.8
points / game
115.7
121.2
points allowed / game
114.8
19−54
season record
38−34
13−25
home record
22−15
6−29
away record
16−19
L1
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
4−6
46.6
FG%
46.4
33.9
3P%
34.0
42.1
rebounds / game
43.4
25.6
assists / game
26.4
14.2
turnovers / game
13.6
50.0
points in paint / game
51.1

Rating Trend

SAC · ORL · 142 days
Sacramento KingsOrlando Magic
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ORL 3−6
Feb 19at SACORL 131 − 94
Mar 29, 2025at ORLORL 121 − 91
Feb 5, 2025at SACORL 130 − 111
Mar 23, 2024at ORLSAC 109 − 107
Jan 3, 2024at SACSAC 138 − 135
Jan 9, 2023at SACSAC 136 − 111
Nov 5, 2022at ORLSAC 126 − 123
Mar 26, 2022at ORLSAC 114 − 110
Dec 8, 2021at SACSAC 142 − 130

SAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 24at CHA90 − 134L
Mar 22vs BKN126 − 122W
Mar 19vs PHI118 − 139L
Mar 17vs SA104 − 132L
Mar 15vs UTAH116 − 111W
Mar 14at LAC118 − 109W
Mar 11vs CHA109 − 117L
Mar 10vs IND114 − 109W
Mar 8vs CHI126 − 110W
Mar 5vs NO123 − 133L

ORL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L6
Mar 24at CLE131 − 136L
Mar 23vs IND126 − 128L
Mar 21vs LAL104 − 105L
Mar 19at CHA111 − 130L
Mar 17vs OKC108 − 113L
Mar 16at ATL112 − 124L
Mar 14at MIA121 − 117W
Mar 12vs WSH136 − 131W
Mar 11vs CLE128 − 122W
Mar 8at MIL130 − 91W