bayesRatings

Raptors at Grizzlies

NBA · Friday, Apr 3 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final TOR 128 – MEM 96
← NBA / Apr 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR26333732128
MEM2120312496
Team box
TOR·MEM
44-84
field goals
34-85
9-24
3-pointers
11-42
31-41
free throws
17-26
51
rebounds
38
31
assists
14
16
turnovers
20
70
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
GG JacksonMEM303051
RJ BarrettTOR292534
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR231941
Brandon IngramTOR261775
Cedric CowardMEM271521
Javon SmallMEM271464

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +33
TOR +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 1 · TOR 33lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 57%, MEM 43% · Updated Apr 3

Expected margin
TOR by 2.2
Expected score
TOR 116.9 – 114.7 MEM
Expected total
231.6
RaptorsThe matchupGrizzlies
−131Our fair odds+131
116.9Expected points114.7
+0.07Power rating−0.43
114.4Points / game115.1
112.3Allowed / game119.5
47.9FG%46.0
35.13P%35.4
42.1Rebounds / game42.4
42−34Season record25−51
5−5Last 102−8
Chucky Hepburn · Immanuel QuickleyOutBrandon Clarke · Cam Spencer
Ja Morant · Jaylen Wells
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · MEM chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors−13157%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+13143%————
SpreadTOR by 2.2
TORToronto Raptors−2.2our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.6
Over231.6our total————
Under231.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Raptors by 2.2 expected
Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 3%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%
← TOR wins byMEM wins by →
Toronto Raptors wins by 5 or more46%
Toronto Raptors wins by 10 or more32%
Toronto Raptors wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.6 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GJavon Smallstarted
GRayan Rupertstarted
FTaylor Hendricksstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·MEM
Apr 1 vs SAC
last game
Apr 1 vs NY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 3, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORChucky Hepburn · right knee; surgery - injury recoveryOut
TORImmanuel Quickley · right foot; plantar fasciitisOut
TORJamison Battle · illness; illnessQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMCam Spencer · low back; sorenessOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle and elbow; surgery recoveryOut
MEMOlivier-Maxence Prosper · low back; sorenessDoubtful
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 76+ games
TOR·MEM
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
114.4
points / game
115.1
112.3
points allowed / game
119.5
42−34
season record
25−51
21−17
home record
14−25
21−17
away record
11−26
L2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
2−8
47.9
FG%
46.0
35.1
3P%
35.4
42.1
rebounds / game
42.4
29.4
assists / game
28.1
13.7
turnovers / game
15.1
52.7
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

TOR · MEM · 150 days
Toronto RaptorsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 5−4
Nov 2, 2025at TORTOR 117 − 104
Feb 5, 2025at TORMEM 138 − 107
Dec 26, 2024at MEMMEM 155 − 126
Jan 22, 2024at TORMEM 108 − 100
Jan 3, 2024at MEMTOR 116 − 111
Feb 5, 2023at MEMTOR 106 − 103
Dec 29, 2022at TORMEM 119 − 106
Nov 30, 2021at TORMEM 98 − 91
Nov 24, 2021at MEMTOR 126 − 113

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Apr 1vs SAC115 − 123L
Mar 31at DET116 − 127L
Mar 29vs ORL139 − 87W
Mar 27vs NO119 − 106W
Mar 25at LAC94 − 119L
Mar 23at UTAH143 − 127W
Mar 22at PHX98 − 120L
Mar 20at DEN115 − 121L
Mar 18at CHI139 − 109W
Mar 15vs DET119 − 108W

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L