bayesRatings

Raptors at Pistons

NBA · Tuesday, Mar 31 · 7:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final TOR 116 – DET 127
← NBA / Mar 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR20342735116
DET26334127127
Team box
TOR·DET
43-89
field goals
44-73
10-29
3-pointers
13-23
20-31
free throws
26-30
35
rebounds
34
33
assists
33
14
turnovers
21
60
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen DurenDET353193
RJ BarrettTOR312462
Brandon IngramTOR312210
Daniss JenkinsDET372155
Duncan RobinsonDET291912
Sandro MamukelashviliTOR221662

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +23
TOR +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 23 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 30%, DET 70% · Updated Mar 31

Expected margin
DET by 6.9
Expected score
DET 114.8 – 107.9 TOR
Expected total
222.7
RaptorsThe matchupPistons
+229Our fair odds−229
107.9Expected points114.8
+0.07Power rating+0.68
114.3Points / game117.4
112.0Allowed / game109.5
47.8FG%48.3
35.13P%35.0
42.3Rebounds / game45.7
42−32Season record54−21
6−4Last 107−3
Alijah Martin · Chucky Hepburn
Immanuel Quickley · Jamison Battle
Jonathan MogboOut (5 each)Bobi Klintman · Cade Cunningham
Chaz Lanier · Isaac Jones
Isaiah Stewart

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DET chance
Our model fair30.4%69.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+22930%————
DETDetroit Pistons−22970%————
SpreadDET by 6.9
TORToronto Raptors+6.9our margin————
DETDetroit Pistons−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.7
Over222.7our total————
Under222.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Pistons by 6.9 expected
Toronto Raptors by 49 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 3%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 48 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 49 points: <1%
← TOR wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Pistons wins by 5 or more59%
Detroit Pistons wins by 10 or more43%
Detroit Pistons wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.7 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GJa'Kobe Walterstarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Detroit Pistons
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FTobias Harrisstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CJalen Durenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DET
Mar 29 vs ORL
last game
Mar 30 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 31, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORImmanuel Quickley · right foot; plantar fasciitisOut
TORJamison Battle · illness; illnessOut
TORJonathan Mogbo · g league - on assignmentOut
TORTrayce Jackson-Davis · g league - on assignmentOut
TORBrandon Ingram · right heel; inflammationQuestionable
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · lower back; spasmsQuestionable
Detroit Pistons
DETBobi Klintman · g league - on assignmentOut
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETChaz Lanier · g league - on assignmentOut
DETIsaac Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETWendell Moore Jr. · g league - two-wayOut
DETCaris LeVert · right knee; patellar tendinopathyQuestionable
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; strainQuestionable
DETDuncan Robinson · right hip; injury managementProbable
DETJalen Duren · right knee; injury managementProbable
and 1 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
TOR·DET
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.68
114.3
points / game
117.4
112.0
points allowed / game
109.5
42−32
season record
54−21
21−16
home record
29−9
21−16
away record
25−12
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
47.8
FG%
48.3
35.1
3P%
35.0
42.3
rebounds / game
45.7
29.3
assists / game
27.4
13.8
turnovers / game
15.0
52.5
points in paint / game
57.8

Rating Trend

TOR · DET · 147 days
Toronto RaptorsDetroit Pistons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Mar 15at TORTOR 119 − 108
Feb 11at TORDET 113 − 95
Apr 4, 2025at TORDET 117 − 105
Jan 11, 2025at DETDET 123 − 114
Nov 25, 2024at DETDET 102 − 100
Nov 15, 2024at TORDET 99 − 95
Mar 13, 2024at DETDET 113 − 104
Dec 30, 2023at DETDET 129 − 127
Nov 19, 2023at TORTOR 142 − 113
Mar 24, 2023at TORTOR 118 − 97

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Mar 29vs ORL139 − 87W
Mar 27vs NO119 − 106W
Mar 25at LAC94 − 119L
Mar 23at UTAH143 − 127W
Mar 22at PHX98 − 120L
Mar 20at DEN115 − 121L
Mar 18at CHI139 − 109W
Mar 15vs DET119 − 108W
Mar 13vs PHX122 − 115W
Mar 11at NO111 − 122L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Mar 30at OKC110 − 114L
Mar 28at MIN109 − 87W
Mar 26vs NO129 − 108W
Mar 25vs ATL129 − 130L
Mar 23vs LAL113 − 110W
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L
Mar 13vs MEM126 − 110W