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Pistons at Thunder

NBA · Monday, Mar 30 · 8:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final DET 110 – OKC 114
← NBA / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
DET241931279110
OKC3122262213114
Team box
DET·OKC
41-97
field goals
38-81
16-43
3-pointers
10-34
12-23
free throws
28-32
46
rebounds
42
30
assists
17
16
turnovers
18
40
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC414753
Paul ReedDET3421102
Javonte GreenDET301951
Kevin HuerterDET381766
Daniss JenkinsDET361546
Ajay MitchellOKC361423

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +15
DET +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: OKC 15 · DET 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 31%, OKC 69% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
OKC by 5.6
Expected score
OKC 114.1 – 108.5 DET
Expected total
222.6
PistonsThe matchupThunder
+224Our fair odds−224
108.5Expected points114.1
+0.66Power rating+1.26
117.5Points / game118.7
109.5Allowed / game107.6
48.4FG%48.3
34.93P%36.0
45.7Rebounds / game44.1
54−20Season record59−16
8−2Last 109−1
Cade Cunningham · Duncan Robinson
Isaiah Stewart · Jalen Duren
Tobias HarrisOutIsaiah Hartenstein · Jalen Williams
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · OKC chance
Our model fair30.9%69.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+22431%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−22469%————
SpreadOKC by 5.6
DETDetroit Pistons+5.6our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−5.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.6
Over222.6our total————
Under222.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 5.6 expected
Detroit Pistons by 47 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 46 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 45 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%
← DET wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more55%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more40%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more26%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GJavonte Greenstarted
GKevin Huerterstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
GDaniss Jenkinsstarted
FPaul Reedstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·OKC
Mar 28 at MIN
last game
Mar 29 vs NY
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Mar 30, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETCade Cunningham · left lung; pneumothoraxOut
DETDuncan Robinson · right hip; injury managementOut
DETIsaiah Stewart · left calf; strainOut
DETJalen Duren · right knee; injury managementOut
DETTobias Harris · left hip; injury managementOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; injury managementOut
OKCJalen Williams · right hamstring; injury managementOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 74+ games
DET·OKC
+0.66
rating (0 = average)
+1.26
117.5
points / game
118.7
109.5
points allowed / game
107.6
54−20
season record
59−16
29−9
home record
31−7
25−11
away record
28−9
W2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
9−1
48.4
FG%
48.3
34.9
3P%
36.0
45.7
rebounds / game
44.1
27.3
assists / game
25.4
15.0
turnovers / game
12.5
58.1
points in paint / game
49.3

Rating Trend

DET · OKC · 146 days
Detroit PistonsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OKC 5−4
Feb 25at DETDET 124 − 116
Apr 2, 2025at OKCOKC 119 − 103
Mar 15, 2025at DETOKC 113 − 107
Jan 28, 2024at DETDET 120 − 104
Oct 30, 2023at OKCOKC 124 − 112
Mar 29, 2023at OKCOKC 107 − 106
Nov 7, 2022at DETDET 112 − 103
Apr 1, 2022at OKCDET 110 − 101
Dec 6, 2021at DETOKC 114 − 103

DET · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Mar 28at MIN109 − 87W
Mar 26vs NO129 − 108W
Mar 25vs ATL129 − 130L
Mar 23vs LAL113 − 110W
Mar 20vs GS115 − 101W
Mar 19at WSH117 − 95W
Mar 17at WSH130 − 117W
Mar 15at TOR108 − 119L
Mar 13vs MEM126 − 110W
Mar 12vs PHI131 − 109W

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Mar 29vs NY111 − 100W
Mar 27vs CHI131 − 113W
Mar 25at BOS109 − 119L
Mar 23at PHI123 − 103W
Mar 21at WSH132 − 111W
Mar 18at BKN121 − 92W
Mar 17at ORL113 − 108W
Mar 15vs MIN116 − 103W
Mar 12vs BOS104 − 102W
Mar 9vs DEN129 − 126W