bayesRatings

Knicks at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final NY 130 – MEM 119
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY48312031130
MEM30322829119
Team box
NY·MEM
48-87
field goals
39-76
13-32
3-pointers
16-36
21-24
free throws
25-30
49
rebounds
20
36
assists
27
19
turnovers
14
66
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
OG AnunobyNY4025133
Mikal BridgesNY362421
Karl-Anthony TownsNY29201111
GG JacksonMEM252034
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM251741
Jose AlvaradoNY321544

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +22
NY +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 0 · NY 22lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 69%, MEM 31% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
NY by 6.9
Expected score
NY 119.3 – 112.4 MEM
Expected total
231.7
KnicksThe matchupGrizzlies
−218Our fair odds+218
119.3Expected points112.4
+0.59Power rating−0.43
116.6Points / game115.0
110.5Allowed / game119.3
47.4FG%45.9
37.33P%35.3
46.0Rebounds / game42.7
49−28Season record25−50
7−3Last 102−8
Miles McBride · Mitchell RobinsonOutBrandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jaylen Wells · Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Santi Aldama

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · MEM chance
Our model fair68.6%31.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−21869%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+21831%————
SpreadNY by 6.9
NYNew York Knicks−6.9our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.7
Over231.7our total————
Under231.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 6.9 expected
New York Knicks by 48 points: <1%New York Knicks by 47 points: <1%New York Knicks by 46 points: <1%New York Knicks by 45 points: <1%New York Knicks by 44 points: <1%New York Knicks by 43 points: <1%New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: 1%New York Knicks by 33 points: 1%New York Knicks by 32 points: 1%New York Knicks by 31 points: 1%New York Knicks by 30 points: 1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 2%New York Knicks by 19 points: 2%New York Knicks by 18 points: 2%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 3%New York Knicks by 14 points: 3%New York Knicks by 13 points: 3%New York Knicks by 12 points: 3%New York Knicks by 11 points: 3%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%
← NY wins byMEM wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more60%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more43%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.7 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.569%
Total over 231.550%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GJosh Hartstarted
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJose Alvaradostarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GCam Spencerstarted
GJavon Smallstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·MEM
Mar 31 at HOU
last game
Mar 30 vs PHX
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYMiles McBride · pelvic; core muscle injury managementOut
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
NYJalen Brunson · right ankle; sorenessQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe;Out
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle and elbow; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTaylor Hendricks · left 5th finger; sorenessDoubtful
MEMTaj Gibson · right foot; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
NY·MEM
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
116.6
points / game
115.0
110.5
points allowed / game
119.3
49−28
season record
25−50
28−9
home record
14−24
21−19
away record
11−26
L3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
47.4
FG%
45.9
37.3
3P%
35.3
46.0
rebounds / game
42.7
27.3
assists / game
28.1
13.7
turnovers / game
15.1
47.4
points in paint / game
49.1

Rating Trend

NY · MEM · 148 days
New York KnicksMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 4−5
Nov 11, 2025at NYNY 133 − 120
Feb 28, 2025at MEMNY 114 − 113
Jan 27, 2025at NYNY 143 − 106
Feb 6, 2024at NYNY 123 − 113
Jan 13, 2024at MEMNY 106 − 94
Nov 27, 2022at NYMEM 127 − 123
Oct 19, 2022at MEMMEM 115 − 112
Mar 11, 2022at MEMMEM 118 − 114
Feb 2, 2022at NYMEM 120 − 108

NY · Last 10

7−3 · streak L3
Mar 31at HOU94 − 111L
Mar 29at OKC100 − 111L
Mar 26at CHA103 − 114L
Mar 24vs NO121 − 116W
Mar 22vs WSH145 − 113W
Mar 20at BKN93 − 92W
Mar 17vs IND136 − 110W
Mar 15vs GS110 − 107W
Mar 13at IND101 − 92W
Mar 11at UTAH134 − 117W

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L
Mar 18vs DEN125 − 118W
Mar 16at CHI107 − 132L
Mar 13at DET110 − 126L