bayesRatings

Cavaliers at Grizzlies

NBA · Monday, Apr 6 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final CLE 142 – MEM 126
← NBA / Apr 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CLE24443341142
MEM36282636126
Team box
CLE·MEM
52-89
field goals
45-94
12-32
3-pointers
29-59
26-37
free throws
7-10
48
rebounds
31
36
assists
32
13
turnovers
13
76
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Evan MobleyCLE262464
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM192430
Dennis SchroderCLE2922511
Sam MerrillCLE282122
Adama BalMEM372060
Dariq WhiteheadMEM312031

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +17
CLE +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 17 · CLE 17lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 69%, MEM 31% · Updated Apr 6

Expected margin
CLE by 7.3
Expected score
CLE 123.7 – 116.3 MEM
Expected total
240.0
CavaliersThe matchupGrizzlies
−218Our fair odds+218
123.7Expected points116.3
+0.59Power rating−0.43
119.3Points / game114.8
115.1Allowed / game119.7
48.1FG%45.9
36.23P%35.3
44.3Rebounds / game42.3
49−29Season record25−53
8−2Last 101−9
Dean Wade · Donovan Mitchell
James Harden · Jaylon Tyson
Max StrusOut (5 each)Brandon Clarke · Ja Morant
Jahmai Mashack · Javon Small
Jaylen Wells

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · MEM chance
Our model fair68.6%31.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Cavaliers−21869%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+21831%————
SpreadCLE by 7.3
CLECleveland Cavaliers−7.3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.0
Over240.0our total————
Under240.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 7.3 expected
Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 47 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 48 points: <1%
← CLE wins byMEM wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more61%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more44%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.0 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.567%
Total over 240.547%
Total over 250.530%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDennis Schroderstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
GKeon Ellisstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GLucas Williamsonstarted
GCam Spencerstarted
FOlivier-Maxence Prosperstarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FGG Jacksonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·MEM
Apr 5 vs IND
last game
Apr 5 at MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 6, 5:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDean Wade · right ankle; sprainOut
CLEDonovan Mitchell · right ankle; sprainOut
CLEJames Harden · personal reasonsOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left great toe; bone bruiseOut
CLEMax Strus · left foot; injury managementOut
CLEThomas Bryant · left calf; strainOut
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right calf; strainOut
MEMJa Morant · left elbow; ucl sprainOut
MEMJahmai Mashack · concussion; protocolOut
MEMJavon Small · left thigh; contusionOut
MEMJaylen Wells · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMKentavious Caldwell-Pope · right 5th finger; surgery recoveryOut
MEMSanti Aldama · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · right great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · left ankle; sprainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle and elbow; surgery recoveryOut
and 2 more

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
CLE·MEM
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
119.3
points / game
114.8
115.1
points allowed / game
119.7
49−29
season record
25−53
25−14
home record
14−26
24−15
away record
11−27
W2
streak
L4
8−2
last 10
1−9
48.1
FG%
45.9
36.2
3P%
35.3
44.3
rebounds / game
42.3
28.3
assists / game
27.9
13.9
turnovers / game
15.2
51.6
points in paint / game
48.8

Rating Trend

CLE · MEM · 153 days
Cleveland CavaliersMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 3−6
Nov 15, 2025at CLECLE 108 − 100
Mar 14, 2025at MEMCLE 133 − 124
Feb 23, 2025at CLECLE 129 − 123
Apr 10, 2024at CLECLE 110 − 98
Feb 1, 2024at MEMCLE 108 − 101
Feb 2, 2023at CLECLE 128 − 113
Jan 18, 2023at MEMMEM 115 − 114
Jan 4, 2022at CLEMEM 110 − 106
Oct 20, 2021at MEMMEM 132 − 121

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Apr 5vs IND117 − 108W
Apr 2at GS118 − 111W
Mar 31at LAL113 − 127L
Mar 30at UTAH122 − 113W
Mar 27vs MIA149 − 128W
Mar 25vs MIA103 − 120L
Mar 24vs ORL136 − 131W
Mar 21at NO111 − 106W
Mar 19at CHI115 − 110W
Mar 17at MIL123 − 116W

MEM · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L
Apr 3vs TOR96 − 128L
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L
Mar 28vs CHI125 − 124W
Mar 27vs HOU109 − 119L
Mar 25vs SA98 − 123L
Mar 23at ATL107 − 146L
Mar 21at CHA101 − 124L
Mar 20vs BOS112 − 117L