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Pacers at Cavaliers

NBA · Sunday, Apr 5 · 5:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final IND 108 – CLE 117
← NBA / Apr 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND32263317108
CLE31243527117
Team box
IND·CLE
33-86
field goals
43-92
17-44
3-pointers
16-47
25-29
free throws
15-19
43
rebounds
46
28
assists
26
10
turnovers
10
24
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Donovan MitchellCLE333866
James HardenCLE342847
Micah PotterIND3021124
Obi ToppinIND232184
Jalen SlawsonIND331962
Quenton JacksonIND291554

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +15
IND +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 15 · IND 12lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 21%, CLE 79% · Updated Apr 5

Expected margin
CLE by 11.3
Expected score
CLE 123.7 – 112.4 IND
Expected total
236.1
PacersThe matchupCavaliers
+381Our fair odds−381
112.4Expected points123.7
−0.54Power rating+0.59
112.6Points / game119.3
120.8Allowed / game115.2
45.9FG%48.1
35.83P%36.2
41.7Rebounds / game44.3
18−59Season record48−29
3−7Last 107−3
Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ben Sheppard · Ivica Zubac
Jarace WalkerOut (5 each)Dean Wade · Evan Mobley
Jarrett Allen · Jaylon Tyson
Sam Merrill

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · CLE chance
Our model fair20.8%79.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+38121%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−38179%————
SpreadCLE by 11.3
INDIndiana Pacers+11.3our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−11.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.1
Over236.1our total————
Under236.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 11.3 expected
Indiana Pacers by 53 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 52 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 51 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 50 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 49 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 48 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 47 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 46 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 45 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 51 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 52 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 53 points: <1%
← IND wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more69%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more55%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more40%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.1 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GKobe Brownstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FJalen Slawsonstarted
CMicah Potterstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GJames Hardenstarted
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GMax Strusstarted
GKeon Ellisstarted
CThomas Bryantstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·CLE
Apr 3 at CHA
last game
Apr 2 at GS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 5, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · back; thoracic and lumbar injury managementOut
INDBen Sheppard · right hip; sprainOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJarace Walker · sacral; contusionOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right knee; acl tearOut
INDPascal Siakam · left ankle; sprainOut
INDT.J. McConnell · bilateral hamstring; injury managementOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDean Wade · right ankle; sprainOut
CLEEvan Mobley · left calf; injury managementOut
CLEJarrett Allen · right knee; injury managementOut
CLEJaylon Tyson · left great toe; bone bruiseOut
CLESam Merrill · left hamstring; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
IND·CLE
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
112.6
points / game
119.3
120.8
points allowed / game
115.2
18−59
season record
48−29
11−27
home record
24−14
7−32
away record
24−15
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
45.9
FG%
48.1
35.8
3P%
36.2
41.7
rebounds / game
44.3
27.5
assists / game
28.3
14.4
turnovers / game
13.9
46.2
points in paint / game
51.6

Rating Trend

IND · CLE · 152 days
Indiana PacersCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 4−6
Jan 6at INDCLE 120 − 116
Dec 1, 2025at INDCLE 135 − 119
Nov 21, 2025at CLECLE 120 − 109
May 13, 2025at CLEIND 114 − 105post
May 11, 2025at INDIND 129 − 109post
May 9, 2025at INDCLE 126 − 104post
May 6, 2025at CLEIND 120 − 119post
May 4, 2025at CLEIND 121 − 112post
Apr 13, 2025at CLEIND 126 − 118
Apr 10, 2025at INDIND 114 − 112

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 3at CHA108 − 129L
Apr 1at CHI145 − 126W
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Apr 2at GS118 − 111W
Mar 31at LAL113 − 127L
Mar 30at UTAH122 − 113W
Mar 27vs MIA149 − 128W
Mar 25vs MIA103 − 120L
Mar 24vs ORL136 − 131W
Mar 21at NO111 − 106W
Mar 19at CHI115 − 110W
Mar 17at MIL123 − 116W
Mar 15vs DAL120 − 130L