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Pacers at Bulls

NBA · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final IND 145 – CHI 126
← NBA / Apr 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND39443428145
CHI33332634126
Team box
IND·CHI
58-102
field goals
47-97
20-48
3-pointers
13-39
9-10
free throws
19-26
41
rebounds
46
49
assists
22
14
turnovers
20
72
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND222545
Ethan ThompsonIND312425
Guerschon YabuseleCHI252061
Collin SextonCHI261834
Matas BuzelisCHI291796
Kobe BrownIND281786

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +28
IND +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 3 · IND 28lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 41%, CHI 59% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
CHI by 2.6
Expected score
CHI 121.5 – 119.0 IND
Expected total
240.5
PacersThe matchupBulls
+142Our fair odds−142
119.0Expected points121.5
−0.54Power rating−0.41
112.2Points / game116.3
120.6Allowed / game121.1
45.8FG%46.9
35.63P%36.0
41.7Rebounds / game45.1
17−58Season record29−46
2−8Last 102−8
Aaron Nesmith · Andrew Nembhard
Ivica Zubac · Jarace Walker
Johnny FurphyOutAnfernee Simons · Jalen Smith
Noa Essengue · Zach Collins

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · CHI chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers+14241%————
CHIChicago Bulls−14259%————
SpreadCHI by 2.6
INDIndiana Pacers+2.6our margin————
CHIChicago Bulls−2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 240.5
Over240.5our total————
Under240.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bulls by 2.6 expected
Indiana Pacers by 44 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bulls by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 3 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 5 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 9 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 10 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 11 points: 3%Chicago Bulls by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 15 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 16 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bulls by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bulls by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bulls by 44 points: <1%
← IND wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bulls wins by 5 or more47%
Chicago Bulls wins by 10 or more33%
Chicago Bulls wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

240.5 expected
190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: <1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 1%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 2%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: 1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%301 points: <1%302 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 230.568%
Total over 240.548%
Total over 250.531%
Total from 231 to 25037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GEthan Thompsonstarted
GKobe Brownstarted
GQuenton Jacksonstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
CJay Huffstarted
Chicago Bulls
GCollin Sextonstarted
GTre Jonesstarted
FGuerschon Yabuselestarted
FIsaac Okorostarted
FMatas Buzelisstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·CHI
Mar 29 vs MIA
last game
Mar 30 at SA
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 1, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAaron Nesmith · cervical; strainOut
INDAndrew Nembhard · lower back; injury managementOut
INDIvica Zubac · rib; fractureOut
INDJarace Walker · lower back; bruiseOut
INDJohnny Furphy · right knee; acl tearOut
INDT.J. McConnell · right hamstring; sorenessOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tearOut
INDJalen Slawson · g league - two-wayProbable
INDObi Toppin · right foot; injury managementProbable
INDPascal Siakam · right knee; injury managementProbable
Chicago Bulls
CHIAnfernee Simons · left ulnar styloid; fractureOut
CHIJalen Smith · right calf; strainOut
CHINoa Essengue · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHIZach Collins · right 1st toe; surgeryOut
CHIGuerschon Yabusele · left ankle; sprainQuestionable
CHIJosh Giddey · left hamstring; tightnessQuestionable
CHINick Richards · right elbow; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 75+ games
IND·CHI
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
−0.41
112.2
points / game
116.3
120.6
points allowed / game
121.1
17−58
season record
29−46
11−27
home record
18−20
6−31
away record
11−26
W1
streak
L4
2−8
last 10
2−8
45.8
FG%
46.9
35.6
3P%
36.0
41.7
rebounds / game
45.1
27.2
assists / game
28.6
14.4
turnovers / game
15.0
45.7
points in paint / game
52.3

Rating Trend

IND · CHI · 148 days
Indiana PacersChicago Bulls
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHI 3−7
Jan 28at INDIND 113 − 110
Dec 5, 2025at CHIIND 120 − 105
Nov 29, 2025at INDIND 103 − 101
Mar 10, 2025at CHICHI 121 − 103
Mar 2, 2025at INDIND 127 − 112
Jan 8, 2025at INDIND 129 − 113
Dec 6, 2024at CHIIND 132 − 123
Mar 27, 2024at CHICHI 125 − 99
Mar 13, 2024at INDCHI 132 − 129
Dec 28, 2023at CHIIND 120 − 104

IND · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Mar 29vs MIA135 − 118W
Mar 27vs LAC113 − 114L
Mar 25vs LAL130 − 137L
Mar 23at ORL128 − 126W
Mar 21at SA119 − 134L
Mar 18vs POR119 − 127L
Mar 17at NY110 − 136L
Mar 15at MIL123 − 134L
Mar 13vs NY92 − 101L
Mar 12vs PHX108 − 123L

CHI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Mar 30at SA114 − 129L
Mar 28at MEM124 − 125L
Mar 27at OKC113 − 131L
Mar 25at PHI137 − 157L
Mar 23vs HOU132 − 124W
Mar 19vs CLE110 − 115L
Mar 18vs TOR109 − 139L
Mar 16vs MEM132 − 107W
Mar 13at LAC108 − 119L
Mar 12at LAL130 − 142L